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Bourg Peronnas vs Thionville - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

France France

Ligue 3 Stade Marcel-Verchere, Bourg-en-Bresse
Our Tip

Match Events

1' Event
Tubio K.
20'
Sub
Souici R. In: Krizoua A.
Out: Souici R.
34' Event
Bouhmidi K.
Assist: Atangana J.

AI Match Summary

The Ligue 3 game between Bourg Peronnas and Thionville finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Thionville.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Bourg Peronnas
30%
Draws
23%
Thionville
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Bourg Peronnas

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Thionville come out ahead of Bourg Peronnas on wins alone.
  • 47% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
Bourg Peronnas Clean Sheet 14%
Thionville Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bourg Peronnas Thionville
Matches Played 33 29
Wins 10 11
Draws 6 8
Losses 17 10
Goals Scored 0.79 1.69
Goals Conceded 1.45 1.55
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 20, 2026 Ligue 3
Bourg Peronnas vs Thionville
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Bourg Peronnas Compare

Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Thionville Compare

Top Goalscorer Tubio K.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Bouhmidi K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bourg Peronnas 30 / 100
Thionville 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bourg Peronnas Thionville

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Bourg Peronnas Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Thionville conceded in 72% of 29 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Thionville lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: Bourg Peronnas scored in 55% of their last 33 outings.

Scoring Trends

Bourg Peronnas VS Thionville
0.63 Goals Scored 1.63
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 88%
13% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Bourg Peronnas

(Home)
17 Oct
Bourg Peronnas
0 : 1
Fleury 91
03 Oct
Rouen
2 : 0
Bourg Peronnas
26 Sept
Bourg Peronnas
1 : 1
Concarneau
19 Sept
Paris 13 Atletico
1 : 1
Bourg Peronnas
12 Sept
Bourg Peronnas
0 : 1
Bastia
Page 1 of 7

Thionville

(Away)
17 Oct
Thionville
1 : 2
Versailles
03 Oct
Le Puy-en-Velay
1 : 0
Thionville
26 Sept
Thionville
1 : 2
La Roche Vendee
19 Sept
Fleury 91
1 : 1
Thionville
12 Sept
Thionville
0 : 4
Rouen
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 La Roche Vendee 10 6 3 1 16:10 21
2 Rouen 10 6 2 2 18:8 20
3 Versailles 10 6 1 3 15:13 19
4 Caen 10 6 0 4 19:13 18
5 Concarneau 10 4 5 1 13:9 17
6 Le Puy-en-Velay 10 5 1 4 12:9 16
7 Amiens SC 10 4 4 2 13:4 16
8 Cannes 10 3 6 1 12:6 15
9 Fleury 91 10 4 3 3 16:12 15
10 Paris 13 Atletico 10 4 3 3 10:10 15
11 Quevilly 10 3 4 3 11:14 13
12 Thionville 10 3 3 4 15:16 12
13 Bastia 10 3 3 4 8:12 12
14 Valenciennes 10 2 3 5 10:15 9
15 Orleans 10 2 3 5 9:14 9
16 Aubagne FC 10 2 1 7 6:13 7
17 Villefranche 10 2 1 7 9:23 7
18 Bourg Peronnas 10 1 2 7 5:16 5
Promotion - Ligue 2 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Ligue 2 (Relegation)