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Bourj vs Al Ghazieh

Lebanon Lebanon

Premier League 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

18' Event
Fall A.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League 2024/2025 game between Bourj and Al Ghazieh finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Bourj.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Bourj
44%
Draws
20%
Al Ghazieh
Draw rate projection: 44% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Al Ghazieh haven't matched Bourj's recent run of results.
  • 44% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Premier League 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Bourj here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 26.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 12%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.8%
Bourj Clean Sheet 20%
Al Ghazieh Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bourj Al Ghazieh
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 17 4
Draws 4 8
Losses 11 18
Goals Scored 1.38 1.2
Goals Conceded 0.75 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.20
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 2.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 26, 2025 Premier League
Bourj vs Al Ghazieh
1:0
May 27, 2025 Premier League
Bourj vs Al Ghazieh
2:1
Apr 24, 2025 Premier League
Al Ghazieh vs Bourj
1:4
Mar 15, 2025 Premier League
Bourj vs Al Ghazieh
1:1
Aug 12, 2023 Premier League
Bourj vs Al Ghazieh
4:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Bourj Compare

Top Goalscorer Fall A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Al Ghazieh Compare

Avg xG / game 1.09
Avg xA / game 0.67

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bourj 36 / 100
Al Ghazieh 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bourj Al Ghazieh

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick GHA Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al Ghazieh let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.

Bourj's goal record stands at 66% scoring rate across 32 recent games.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Difficult form: Al Ghazieh registered 4 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Bourj VS Al Ghazieh
1.38 Goals Scored 1.2
0.75 Goals Conceded 2
63% Over 1.5 80%
63% Over 2.5 80%
13% Over 3.5 40%