Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Bourj vs Al Ghazieh

Lebanon Lebanon

Premier League 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

18' Event
Fall A.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League 2024/2025 game between Bourj and Al Ghazieh finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Bourj.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Bourj
15%
Draws
28%
Al Ghazieh
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Bourj

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

28% / Low Confidence
  • Al Ghazieh haven't matched Bourj's recent run of results.
  • 28% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Premier League 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Bourj here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 26.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 12%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.8%
Bourj Clean Sheet 20%
Al Ghazieh Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bourj Al Ghazieh
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 17 4
Draws 4 8
Losses 11 18
Goals Scored 1.22 0.9
Goals Conceded 1.19 1.73
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 0.97
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 26, 2025 Premier League
Bourj vs Al Ghazieh
1:0
May 27, 2025 Premier League
Bourj vs Al Ghazieh
2:1
Apr 24, 2025 Premier League
Al Ghazieh vs Bourj
1:4
Mar 15, 2025 Premier League
Bourj vs Al Ghazieh
1:1
Aug 12, 2023 Premier League
Bourj vs Al Ghazieh
4:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Bourj Compare

Top Goalscorer Fall A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84

Al Ghazieh Compare

Avg xG / game 0.88
Avg xA / game 0.54

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bourj 36 / 100
Al Ghazieh 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bourj Al Ghazieh

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Al Ghazieh Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al Ghazieh let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.

Bourj's goal record stands at 66% scoring rate across 32 recent games.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Difficult form: Al Ghazieh registered 4 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Bourj VS Al Ghazieh
1.38 Goals Scored 1.2
0.75 Goals Conceded 2
63% Over 1.5 80%
63% Over 2.5 80%
13% Over 3.5 40%

Recent Form & Match History

Bourj

(Home)
30 Dec
Al Ansar
4 : 1
Bourj
25 Dec
Bourj
1 : 4
Al Ahed
19 Dec
Bourj
1 : 0
Al Riyadi Abbasiyah
12 Dec
Bourj
2 : 1
Racing
06 Dec
Al Sahel
1 : 0
Bourj
Page 1 of 7

Al Ghazieh

(Away)
05 Jul
Al Ghazieh
1 : 4
Al Riyadi Abbasiyah
30 Jun
Al Ghazieh
0 : 3
Al Sahel
26 Jun
Bourj
1 : 0
Al Ghazieh
19 Jun
Al Ghazieh
1 : 2
Shabab Baalbeck
14 Jun
Racing
0 : 4
Al Ghazieh
Page 1 of 6