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Bourj vs Al Ghazieh - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Lebanon Lebanon

Premier League 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

35' Event
Mehanna H.
(Penalty)
89' Event
Serdah A.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Premier League 2024/2025 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Bourj
15%
Draws
28%
Al Ghazieh
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Bourj

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

28% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Bourj lately — more wins on the board than Al Ghazieh.
  • 28% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Premier League 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Bourj here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 71.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Bourj Clean Sheet 23%
Al Ghazieh Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bourj Al Ghazieh
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 17 4
Draws 4 8
Losses 11 18
Goals Scored 1.22 0.9
Goals Conceded 1.19 1.73
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 0.97
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 26, 2025 Premier League
Bourj vs Al Ghazieh
1:0
May 27, 2025 Premier League
Bourj vs Al Ghazieh
2:1
Apr 24, 2025 Premier League
Al Ghazieh vs Bourj
1:4
Mar 15, 2025 Premier League
Bourj vs Al Ghazieh
1:1
Aug 12, 2023 Premier League
Bourj vs Al Ghazieh
4:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Bourj Compare

Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84

Al Ghazieh Compare

Top Goalscorer Serdah A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.88
Avg xA / game 0.54

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bourj 37 / 100
Al Ghazieh 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bourj Al Ghazieh

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Al Ghazieh Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al Ghazieh's defensive record shows goals conceded in 80% of 30 matches.

Attacking prowess: Bourj scored in 66% of their last 32 outings.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Difficult form: Al Ghazieh registered 4 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Bourj VS Al Ghazieh
1.38 Goals Scored 1.2
0.75 Goals Conceded 2
63% Over 1.5 80%
63% Over 2.5 80%
13% Over 3.5 40%

Recent Form & Match History

Bourj

(Home)
30 Dec
Al Ansar
4 : 1
Bourj
25 Dec
Bourj
1 : 4
Al Ahed
19 Dec
Bourj
1 : 0
Al Riyadi Abbasiyah
12 Dec
Bourj
2 : 1
Racing
06 Dec
Al Sahel
1 : 0
Bourj
Page 1 of 7

Al Ghazieh

(Away)
05 Jul
Al Ghazieh
1 : 4
Al Riyadi Abbasiyah
30 Jun
Al Ghazieh
0 : 3
Al Sahel
26 Jun
Bourj
1 : 0
Al Ghazieh
19 Jun
Al Ghazieh
1 : 2
Shabab Baalbeck
14 Jun
Racing
0 : 4
Al Ghazieh
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Ansar 11 10 1 0 31:7 31
2 Safa 11 9 2 0 30:4 29
3 Al Ahed 11 9 1 1 34:11 28
4 Nejmeh SC 11 5 2 4 12:8 17
5 Al Hikma 11 4 4 3 12:11 16
6 Tadamon 11 4 2 5 13:14 14
7 Al Sahel 11 4 1 6 14:21 13
8 Racing 11 1 6 4 4:14 9
9 Al Riyadi Abbasiyah 11 1 5 5 7:15 8
10 Bourj 11 2 1 8 7:21 7
11 Al Ghazieh 11 1 3 7 5:18 6
12 Shabab Baalbeck 11 1 2 8 4:29 5
Promotion - Premier League 2024/2025 (Winners stage)
Relegation - Premier League 2024/2025 (Losers stage)