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Bourj vs Al Ghazieh

Lebanon Lebanon

Premier League 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

35' Event
Mehanna H.
(Penalty)
89' Event
Serdah A.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Premier League 2024/2025 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Bourj
44%
Draws
20%
Al Ghazieh
Draw rate projection: 44% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Bourj lately — more wins on the board than Al Ghazieh.
  • 44% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Premier League 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Bourj here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 71.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Bourj Clean Sheet 23%
Al Ghazieh Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bourj Al Ghazieh
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 15 4
Draws 4 8
Losses 11 18
Goals Scored 1.38 1.2
Goals Conceded 0.75 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.20
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 2.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 26, 2025 Premier League
Bourj vs Al Ghazieh
1:0
May 27, 2025 Premier League
Bourj vs Al Ghazieh
2:1
Apr 24, 2025 Premier League
Al Ghazieh vs Bourj
1:4
Mar 15, 2025 Premier League
Bourj vs Al Ghazieh
1:1
Aug 12, 2023 Premier League
Bourj vs Al Ghazieh
4:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Bourj Compare

Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Al Ghazieh Compare

Top Goalscorer Serdah A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.09
Avg xA / game 0.67

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bourj 37 / 100
Al Ghazieh 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bourj Al Ghazieh

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick GHA Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al Ghazieh's defensive record shows goals conceded in 80% of 30 matches.

Attacking prowess: Bourj scored in 63% of their last 30 outings.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Difficult form: Al Ghazieh registered 4 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Bourj VS Al Ghazieh
1.38 Goals Scored 1.2
0.75 Goals Conceded 2
63% Over 1.5 80%
63% Over 2.5 80%
13% Over 3.5 40%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Al Ansar11101031:731
2Safa1192030:429
3Al Ahed1191134:1128
4Nejmeh SC1152412:817
5Al Hikma1144312:1116
6Tadamon1142513:1414
7Al Sahel1141614:2113
8Racing111644:149
9Al Riyadi Abbasiyah111557:158
10Bourj112187:217
11Al Ghazieh111375:186
12Shabab Baalbeck111284:295