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Bourj vs Shabab Baalbeck

Lebanon Lebanon

Premier League 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

37' Event
Kowaya M.
73' Event
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

Shabab Baalbeck in this Premier League 2024/2025 matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Shabab Baalbeck.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Bourj
15%
Draws
42%
Shabab Baalbeck
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Bourj

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Bourj lately — more wins on the board than Shabab Baalbeck.
  • Bourj are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Bourj here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 71.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 16.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 7%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.6%
Bourj Clean Sheet 68%
Shabab Baalbeck Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bourj Shabab Baalbeck
Matches Played 34 30
Wins 19 4
Draws 4 6
Losses 11 20
Goals Scored 1.26 0.7
Goals Conceded 1.15 2.27
Expected Goals (xG) 1.89 0.78
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 1, 2025 Premier League
Shabab Baalbeck vs Bourj
0:3
Jun 1, 2025 Premier League
Shabab Baalbeck vs Bourj
0:1
May 1, 2025 Premier League
Bourj vs Shabab Baalbeck
0:2
Feb 19, 2025 Premier League
Shabab Baalbeck vs Bourj
1:3
Mar 22, 2024 Lebanese Cup
Shabab Baalbeck vs Bourj
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Bourj Compare

Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Shabab Baalbeck Compare

Top Goalscorer Kowaya M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.71
Avg xA / game 0.43

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bourj 50 / 100
Shabab Baalbeck 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bourj Shabab Baalbeck

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Bourj Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Shabab Baalbeck let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.

Bourj scored in 68% of their last 34 games.

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Shabab Baalbeck lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Bourj VS Shabab Baalbeck
1.38 Goals Scored 0.8
0.75 Goals Conceded 2.4
63% Over 1.5 80%
63% Over 2.5 80%
13% Over 3.5 20%

Recent Form & Match History

Bourj

(Home)
30 Dec
Al Ansar
4 : 1
Bourj
25 Dec
Bourj
1 : 4
Al Ahed
19 Dec
Bourj
1 : 0
Al Riyadi Abbasiyah
12 Dec
Bourj
2 : 1
Racing
06 Dec
Al Sahel
1 : 0
Bourj
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Shabab Baalbeck

(Away)
05 Jul
Al Sahel
5 : 1
Shabab Baalbeck
01 Jul
Shabab Baalbeck
0 : 3
Bourj
25 Jun
Shabab Baalbeck
1 : 0
Racing
19 Jun
Al Ghazieh
1 : 2
Shabab Baalbeck
14 Jun
Al Riyadi Abbasiyah
3 : 0
Shabab Baalbeck
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