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Bournemouth vs St. Pauli

World World

Club Friendly
Our Tip

Match Events

19'
Sub
Rees-Dottin R. In: Gannon-Doak B.
Out: Rees-Dottin R.
22' Event
Kaars M.
25' Event
Gannon-Doak B.

AI Match Summary

Bournemouth in this Club Friendly matchup, with the score ending 4-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Bournemouth.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
Bournemouth
28%
Draws
22%
St. Pauli
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Bournemouth

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • St. Pauli haven't matched Bournemouth's recent run of results.
  • Bournemouth are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.6%
Bournemouth Clean Sheet 14%
St. Pauli Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bournemouth St. Pauli
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 10 8
Draws 14 8
Losses 4 13
Goals Scored 2.38 2.25
Goals Conceded 1 1.75
Expected Goals (xG) 2.38 2.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 24, 2026 Club Friendly
Bournemouth vs St. Pauli
4:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Bournemouth Compare

Top Goalscorer Gannon-Doak B.
1 Goals
Assists Leader William H.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.83
Avg xA / game 1.19

St. Pauli Compare

Top Goalscorer Kaars M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.05
Avg xA / game 1.25

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bournemouth 48 / 100
St. Pauli 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bournemouth St. Pauli

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick BOU Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Bournemouth's goal record stands at 82% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

St. Pauli's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 29 matches.

Games between these two average 5.00 goals.

Recent resilience: Bournemouth stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Bournemouth VS St. Pauli
2.38 Goals Scored 2.25
1 Goals Conceded 1.75
88% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Bournemouth

(Home)
30 Jul
Augsburg
2 : 5
Bournemouth
24 Jul
Bournemouth
4 : 1
St. Pauli
24 May
Nottingham
1 : 1
Bournemouth
19 May
Bournemouth
1 : 1
Manchester City
09 May
Fulham
0 : 1
Bournemouth
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St. Pauli

(Away)
01 Aug
St. Pauli
2 : 2
Dep. A Coruna
24 Jul
Bournemouth
4 : 1
St. Pauli
19 Jul
St. Pauli
2 : 1
HNK Gorica
11 Jul
Babelsberg
1 : 4
St. Pauli
04 Jul
Emden
1 : 3
St. Pauli
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