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Bournemouth vs St. Pauli

World World

Club Friendly
Our Tip

Match Events

19'
Sub
Rees-Dottin R. In: Gannon-Doak B.
Out: Rees-Dottin R.
22' Event
Kaars M.
25' Event
Gannon-Doak B.

AI Match Summary

Bournemouth in this Club Friendly matchup, with the score ending 4-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Bournemouth.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Bournemouth
35%
Draws
25%
St. Pauli
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Bournemouth

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • St. Pauli haven't matched Bournemouth's recent run of results.
  • Bournemouth are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79.8%
Bournemouth Clean Sheet 16%
St. Pauli Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bournemouth St. Pauli
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 12 8
Draws 14 9
Losses 4 13
Goals Scored 2.03 1.3
Goals Conceded 1.17 1.77
Expected Goals (xG) 2.56 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 24, 2026 Club Friendly
Bournemouth vs St. Pauli
4:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Bournemouth Compare

Top Goalscorer Gannon-Doak B.
1 Goals
Assists Leader William H.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.97
Avg xA / game 1.28

St. Pauli Compare

Top Goalscorer Kaars M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bournemouth 75 / 100
St. Pauli 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bournemouth St. Pauli

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Bournemouth Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Bournemouth's goal record stands at 87% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

St. Pauli's defensive record shows goals conceded in 90% of 30 matches.

Games between these two average 5.00 goals.

Recent resilience: Bournemouth stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Bournemouth VS St. Pauli
3.25 Goals Scored 1.25
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.88
100% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 63%
63% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Bournemouth

(Home)
20 Sept
Bournemouth
0 : 1
Liverpool
17 Sept
Real Sociedad
1 : 2
Bournemouth
12 Sept
Bournemouth
2 : 2
Brentford
08 Sept
Bournemouth
4 : 0
Lincoln City
05 Sept
Newcastle Utd
2 : 2
Bournemouth
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St. Pauli

(Away)
20 Sept
Energie Cottbus
1 : 1
St. Pauli
12 Sept
St. Pauli
1 : 0
Wolfsburg
04 Sept
Arminia Bielefeld
2 : 2
St. Pauli
30 Aug
St. Pauli
1 : 2
Kaiserslautern
23 Aug
RW Essen
2 : 0
St. Pauli
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