Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Braintree vs Carlisle

England England

National League 2025/2026 Rare Breed Meat Co. Stadium, Braintree
Our Tip

Match Events

34' Event
Linney R.
Assist: Ellis J.
41' Event
Walker L.
Assist: Thorpe E.
46'
Sub
Gilliead A. In: Davies A.
Out: Gilliead A.

AI Match Summary

The National League 2025/2026 game between Braintree and Carlisle finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Carlisle.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Braintree
30%
Draws
47%
Carlisle
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Carlisle

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Carlisle carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Carlisle's way, sitting at 70%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.8%
Braintree Clean Sheet 10%
Carlisle Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Braintree Carlisle
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 4 16
Draws 6 5
Losses 18 7
Goals Scored 1.32 2.07
Goals Conceded 2.07 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 28, 2026 National League
Braintree vs Carlisle
1:2
Aug 25, 2025 National League
Carlisle vs Braintree
5:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Braintree Compare

Top Goalscorer Walker L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Carlisle Compare

Top Goalscorer Linney R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Harper C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Braintree 14 / 100
Carlisle 65 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Braintree Carlisle

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Carlisle Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Braintree found the back of the net in 82% of recent matches (28 games).

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Carlisle has conceded goals in 71% of their last 28 outings.

Recent resilience: Braintree stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Braintree VS Carlisle
1.75 Goals Scored 1.88
2.13 Goals Conceded 1.25
100% Over 1.5 88%
100% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Braintree

(Home)
31 Aug
Braintree
0 : 2
Farnborough
29 Aug
Dover Ath.
3 : 3
Braintree
22 Aug
Braintree
1 : 2
Horsham FC
18 Aug
Braintree
1 : 2
Ipswich U21
15 Aug
Braintree
3 : 2
Chesham
Page 1 of 6

Carlisle

(Away)
31 Aug
Carlisle
4 : 2
Scunthorpe
28 Aug
Wealdstone
1 : 1
Carlisle
22 Aug
Carlisle
4 : 1
Hornchurch
15 Aug
Yeovil
1 : 1
Carlisle
08 Aug
Carlisle
2 : 3
Worthing FC
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 York City 46 33 9 4 114:41 108
2 Rochdale 46 33 7 6 88:41 106
3 Carlisle 46 29 8 9 87:51 95
4 Boreham Wood 46 27 9 10 95:58 90
5 Scunthorpe 46 23 13 10 77:62 82
6 Southend 46 23 12 11 83:47 81
7 Forest Green 46 23 12 11 82:52 81
8 Halifax 46 20 10 16 69:66 70
9 Hartlepool 46 18 14 14 54:59 68
10 Woking 46 16 15 15 69:54 63
11 Tamworth 46 17 11 18 63:71 62
12 Boston United 46 15 14 17 63:67 59
13 Altrincham 46 17 6 23 55:65 57
14 Solihull Moors 46 14 14 18 71:72 56
15 Wealdstone 46 15 11 20 67:74 56
16 Yeovil 46 15 6 25 48:68 51
17 Eastleigh 46 13 11 22 57:80 50
18 Gateshead 46 14 8 24 54:90 50
19 Sutton 46 11 14 21 59:79 47
20 Aldershot 46 13 7 26 69:87 46
21 Brackley 46 10 12 24 40:75 42
22 Morecambe 46 9 11 26 66:103 38
23 Braintree 46 8 12 26 38:76 36
24 Truro 46 8 10 28 42:72 34
Promotion - League Two (Main)
Promotion - National League 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - National League 2025/2026 (Play Offs)