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Brasilia FC (DF) vs Santa Maria

Brazil Brazil

Campeonato Brasiliense 2022
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Brasilia FC (DF) play Santa Maria in the Campeonato Brasiliense 2022. It looks like a close match. Recently, Brasilia FC (DF) averaged 1.27 goals scored and 1.77 conceded. Santa Maria averaged 0.9 goals scored and 2.23 conceded. In past meetings, Brasilia FC (DF) won 1, Santa Maria won 2, and they drew 2. Their last match on Feb 8, 2023 ended 0:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 3.38 for Brasilia FC (DF) and 0.63 for Santa Maria. This points to a Brasilia FC (DF) double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Brasilia FC (DF)
20%
Draws
34%
Santa Maria
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Brasilia FC (DF)

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

74% / Medium Confidence
  • Brasilia FC (DF) picked up more points recently compared to Santa Maria.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (3.38 vs 0.63 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 58%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 87%
Over 1.5 Goals 74%
Over 2.5 Goals 58%
Over 3.5 Goals 35%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 51%
Brasilia FC (DF) Clean Sheet 29%
Santa Maria Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 67%
Second Half Goal 70%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Brasilia FC (DF) Santa Maria
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 9 6
Draws 3 4
Losses 18 20
Goals Scored 1.27 0.9
Goals Conceded 1.77 2.23
Expected Goals (xG) 2.50 0.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 4.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 8, 2023 Brasiliense
Brasilia FC (DF) vs Santa Maria
0:1
Feb 16, 2022 Brasiliense
Brasilia FC (DF) vs Santa Maria
1:1
Feb 18, 2017 Brasiliense
Brasilia FC (DF) vs Santa Maria
1:4
Feb 13, 2016 Brasiliense
Brasilia FC (DF) vs Santa Maria
1:1
Mar 25, 2015 Brasiliense
Brasilia FC (DF) vs Santa Maria
2:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Brasilia FC (DF) 47 / 100
Santa Maria 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Brasilia FC (DF) Santa Maria

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Brasilia FC (DF) or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +21%
2.63
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11.4%
1.92
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Brasilia FC (DF) attacking → ← attacking Santa Maria

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Brasilia FC (DF) scored in 67% of their last 30 games.

Santa Maria let in goals in 90% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Brasilia FC (DF) went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Santa Maria lost 5 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

30 Points in last 5 22
2.50 Goals expected (xG) 0.25
1.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 4.25

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Ceilandia961220:1219
2Capital953120:818
3Brasiliense951323:1216
4Gama943216:1315
5Santa Maria933315:1612
6Paranoa932413:1411
7Brasilia FC (DF)932412:1711
8Taguatinga924311:1710
9Unai EC923412:159
10Luziania90277:252