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Brazil vs Chile

World World

World Championship 2026 Maracanã
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Brazil play Chile in the World Championship 2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Brazil averaged 1.83 goals scored and 0.9 conceded. Chile averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.33 conceded. In past meetings, Brazil won 5, Chile won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on Sep 5, 2025 ended 3:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.16 for Brazil and 1.63 for Chile. This points to a Brazil double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

55%
Brazil
17%
Draws
28%
Chile
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Brazil

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / High Confidence
  • Brazil picked up more points recently compared to Chile.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.16 vs 1.63 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 70%
Over 2.5 Goals 55%
Over 3.5 Goals 33%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 44%
Brazil Clean Sheet 14%
Chile Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 63%
Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Brazil Chile
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 15 10
Draws 8 6
Losses 6 14
Goals Scored 1.83 1.2
Goals Conceded 0.9 1.33
Expected Goals (xG) 2.75 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.57

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 5, 2025 World Championship
Brazil vs Chile
3:0
Oct 11, 2024 World Championship
Chile vs Brazil
1:2
Mar 24, 2022 World Championship
Brazil vs Chile
4:0
Sep 3, 2021 World Championship
Chile vs Brazil
0:1
Jul 3, 2021 Copa América
Brazil vs Chile
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Brazil Compare

Top Goalscorer Estêvão
1 Goals
Assists Leader Lucas Paqueta
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.12
Avg xA / game 1.38

Chile Compare

Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Brazil 52 / 100
Chile 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Brazil Chile

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Brazil Win (1)
Secondary Pick Brazil & Over 2.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +17.1%
2.13
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.2%
2.04
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Brazil attacking → ← attacking Chile

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Brazil scored in 83% of their last 29 games.

Chile let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Brazil went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Chile lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Low
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

53 Points in last 5 36
2.75 Goals expected (xG) 2.00
1.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.57

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Argentina18122431:1038
2Ecuador1888214:529
3Colombia1877428:1828
4Uruguay1877422:1228
5Brazil1884624:1728
6Paraguay1877414:1028
7Bolivia18621017:3520
8Venezuela1846818:2818
9Peru1826106:2112
10Chile1825119:2711