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Breno vs Brusaporto

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group B 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

34' Event
Moraschi L.
38' Event
Quarena A.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 game between Breno and Brusaporto finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Brusaporto.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Breno
20%
Draws
51%
Brusaporto
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Brusaporto

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Brusaporto come out ahead of Breno on wins alone.
  • Model gives Breno a 42% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Brusaporto here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%
Breno Clean Sheet 16%
Brusaporto Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Breno Brusaporto
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 8 14
Draws 7 5
Losses 15 13
Goals Scored 0.97 1.09
Goals Conceded 1.5 0.97
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 19, 2026 Serie D - Group B
Breno vs Brusaporto
0:2
Dec 7, 2025 Serie D - Group B
Brusaporto vs Breno
3:2
Feb 26, 2023 Serie D - Group B
Brusaporto vs Breno
0:1
Oct 23, 2022 Serie D - Group B
Breno vs Brusaporto
0:1
Feb 27, 2022 Serie D - Group B
Brusaporto vs Breno
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Breno Compare

Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Brusaporto Compare

Top Goalscorer Moraschi L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Quarena A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Breno 41 / 100
Brusaporto 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Breno Brusaporto

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Brusaporto's defensive record shows goals conceded in 72% of 32 matches.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Breno went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Breno's goal record stands at 57% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Breno VS Brusaporto
0.75 Goals Scored 1.13
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.38
100% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Breno

(Home)
10 May
Breno
0 : 1
Pavia
03 May
Breno
2 : 1
Villa Valle
26 Apr
Varesina
2 : 2
Breno
19 Apr
Breno
0 : 2
Brusaporto
12 Apr
Real Calepina
1 : 1
Breno
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Brusaporto

(Away)
08 Aug
Brusaporto
1 : 0
Fiorenzuola
05 Aug
Pro Palazzolo
1 : 0
Brusaporto
03 May
Oltrepo
2 : 1
Brusaporto
26 Apr
Brusaporto
3 : 1
Folgore Caratese
19 Apr
Breno
0 : 2
Brusaporto
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Folgore Caratese 34 19 11 4 58:27 68
2 USD Casatese 34 16 13 5 49:28 61
3 Chievo 34 18 6 10 52:43 60
4 AC Milan U23 34 16 8 10 62:37 56
5 AC Leon 34 14 11 9 44:34 53
6 Brusaporto 34 15 6 13 41:38 51
7 Oltrepo 34 15 8 11 38:36 50
8 Scanzorosciate 34 11 14 9 41:33 47
9 Villa Valle 34 13 8 13 43:46 47
10 Ciserano-Bergamo 34 11 13 10 33:31 46
11 Caldiero Terme 34 10 15 9 50:40 45
12 Real Calepina 34 11 9 14 42:47 42
13 Castellanzese 34 10 11 13 41:39 41
14 Breno 34 9 11 14 39:51 38
15 Pavia 34 9 10 15 36:47 37
16 Varesina 34 7 15 12 38:44 36
17 Sondrio 34 8 7 19 37:64 31
18 Vogherese 34 2 8 24 21:80 -17
Promotion - Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 (Play Out)