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Breno vs Pavia

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group B 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

70' Event
Poesio C.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

Pavia in this Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 tie, finishing 0-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Breno
20%
Draws
44%
Pavia
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Pavia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

36% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Pavia lately — more wins on the board than Breno.
  • Win probability leans Breno's way, sitting at 80%.
  • Pavia arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Pavia, who have won 1 of the last 3 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Breno Clean Sheet 17%
Pavia Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Breno Pavia
Matches Played 30 34
Wins 8 10
Draws 7 10
Losses 15 14
Goals Scored 0.97 1.09
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.41
Expected Goals (xG) 0.81 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Serie D - Group B
Breno vs Pavia
0:1
Jan 25, 2026 Serie D - Group B
Breno vs Pavia
2:2
Sep 24, 2025 Serie D - Group B
Pavia vs Breno
2:5

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Breno 75 / 100
Pavia 12 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Breno Pavia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Breno Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 4.00 goals when they meet.

Defensive concern: Pavia conceded in 62% of 34 recent games.

Breno has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Pavia lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Breno VS Pavia
1 Goals Scored 1.13
1.63 Goals Conceded 0.63
100% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Breno

(Home)
10 May
Breno
0 : 1
Pavia
03 May
Breno
2 : 1
Villa Valle
26 Apr
Varesina
2 : 2
Breno
19 Apr
Breno
0 : 2
Brusaporto
12 Apr
Real Calepina
1 : 1
Breno
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Pavia

(Away)
25 Jul
Pavia
0 : 4
AlbinoLeffe
19 Jul
Pisa
6 : 1
Pavia
10 May
Breno
0 : 1
Pavia
03 May
Chievo
2 : 1
Pavia
26 Apr
Pavia
3 : 0
Ciserano-Bergamo
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Final
Castellanzese 1
Varesina 2
Breno 0
Pavia 1