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Breno vs Pavia

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group B
Our Tip

Match Events

70' Event
Poesio C.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

Pavia in this Serie D - Group B tie, finishing 0-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

80%
Breno
11%
Draws
9%
Pavia
Draw rate projection: 11% Favored: Breno

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

93% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Pavia lately — more wins on the board than Breno.
  • Win probability leans Breno's way, sitting at 80%.
  • Pavia arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Pavia, who have won 1 of the last 3 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Breno Clean Sheet 17%
Pavia Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Breno Pavia
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 8 9
Draws 7 9
Losses 15 12
Goals Scored 1 1.13
Goals Conceded 1.63 0.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Serie D - Group B
Breno vs Pavia
0:1
Jan 25, 2026 Serie D - Group B
Breno vs Pavia
2:2
Sep 24, 2025 Serie D - Group B
Pavia vs Breno
2:5

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Breno 75 / 100
Pavia 12 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Breno Pavia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick BRE Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 4.00 goals when they meet.

Defensive concern: Pavia conceded in 60% of 30 recent games.

Breno has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Pavia lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Breno VS Pavia
1 Goals Scored 1.13
1.63 Goals Conceded 0.63
100% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Breno

(Home)
10 May
Breno
0 : 1
Pavia
03 May
Breno
2 : 1
Villa Valle
26 Apr
Varesina
2 : 2
Breno
19 Apr
Breno
0 : 2
Brusaporto
12 Apr
Real Calepina
1 : 1
Breno
Page 1 of 6

Pavia

(Away)
25 Jul
Pavia
0 : 4
AlbinoLeffe
19 Jul
Pisa
6 : 1
Pavia
10 May
Breno
0 : 1
Pavia
03 May
Chievo
2 : 1
Pavia
26 Apr
Pavia
3 : 0
Ciserano-Bergamo
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Final
Castellanzese 1
Varesina 2
Breno 0
Pavia 1