Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Brentford U21 vs Derby U21

England England

Professional Development League 2025/2026 Wheatsheaf Park, Staines
Our Tip

Match Events

36' Event
Boni M.
43' Event
Grey A.
86' Event
Laidlaw E.
Penalty Missed

AI Match Summary

Brentford U21 in this Professional Development League 2025/2026 tie, finishing 2-0. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Brentford U21
20%
Draws
33%
Derby U21
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Brentford U21

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Derby U21 haven't matched Brentford U21's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Brentford U21's way, sitting at 70%.
  • Brentford U21 have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Derby U21, who have won 1 of the last 3 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 3 times recently and Brentford U21 have taken 2 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.4%
Brentford U21 Clean Sheet 15%
Derby U21 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Brentford U21 Derby U21
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 18 8
Draws 4 8
Losses 8 13
Goals Scored 2.17 1.72
Goals Conceded 1.33 2.28
Expected Goals (xG) 2.69 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 27, 2026 Professional Development League
Brentford U21 vs Derby U21
2:0
Dec 6, 2024 Premier League Cup
Derby U21 vs Brentford U21
1:4
Oct 21, 2024 Premier League Cup
Brentford U21 vs Derby U21
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Brentford U21 Compare

Top Goalscorer Boni M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Grey A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.07
Avg xA / game 1.34

Derby U21 Compare

Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Brentford U21 66 / 100
Derby U21 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Brentford U21 Derby U21

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Brentford U21 Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Brentford U21's goal record stands at 87% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Defensive concern: Derby U21 conceded in 86% of 29 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.67 goals per match.

Solid form: Brentford U21 remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Brentford U21 VS Derby U21
2.38 Goals Scored 1.75
1.38 Goals Conceded 3
100% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 88%
50% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Brentford U21

(Home)
13 Sept
Brentford U21
0 : 2
Everton U21
08 Sept
Hull City U21
1 : 1
Brentford U21
31 Aug
Brentford U21
5 : 1
Sunderland U21
21 Aug
Stoke City U21
2 : 3
Brentford U21
16 Aug
Brentford U21
2 : 0
Wycombe U21
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Derby U21

(Away)
11 Sept
Derby U21
1 : 3
Tottenham U21
08 Sept
Gateshead
1 : 3
Derby U21
31 Aug
Derby U21
4 : 4
West Brom U21
24 Aug
Reading U21
1 : 3
Derby U21
18 Aug
Halifax
6 : 2
Derby U21
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Stoke City U21 1
Peterborough U21 3
Nottingham U21 3
Charlton U21 2
Sheffield Utd U21 1
Norwich U21 3
Swansea U21 2
Newcastle Utd U21 0
Reading U21 0
Huddersfield U21 1
Bournemouth U21 1
Wolves U21 0
Everton U21 3
Watford U21 2
Brentford U21 2
Derby U21 0
Quarter-finals
Peterborough U21 0
Nottingham U21 1
Norwich U21 1
Swansea U21 0
Huddersfield U21 4
Bournemouth U21 1
Everton U21 4
Brentford U21 2
Semi-finals
Nottingham U21 1
Norwich U21 2
Huddersfield U21 3
Everton U21 1
Final
Norwich U21 2
Huddersfield U21 4