Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Brentford U21 vs Derby U21

England England

Professional Development League Wheatsheaf Park, Staines
Our Tip

Match Events

36' Event
Boni M.
43' Event
Grey A.
86' Event
Laidlaw E.
Penalty Missed

AI Match Summary

Brentford U21 in this Professional Development League tie, finishing 2-0. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Brentford U21
6%
Draws
4%
Derby U21
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Brentford U21

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Derby U21 haven't matched Brentford U21's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Brentford U21's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Brentford U21 have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Derby U21, who have won 1 of the last 3 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 3 times recently and Brentford U21 have taken 2 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Brentford U21 Clean Sheet 16%
Derby U21 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Brentford U21 Derby U21
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 19 6
Draws 4 9
Losses 8 14
Goals Scored 3 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.75
Expected Goals (xG) 3.00 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 27, 2026 Professional Development League
Brentford U21 vs Derby U21
2:0
Dec 6, 2024 Premier League Cup
Derby U21 vs Brentford U21
1:4
Oct 21, 2024 Premier League Cup
Brentford U21 vs Derby U21
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Brentford U21 Compare

Top Goalscorer Boni M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Grey A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.31
Avg xA / game 1.5

Derby U21 Compare

Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Brentford U21 84 / 100
Derby U21 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Brentford U21 Derby U21

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick BRE Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Brentford U21's goal record stands at 90% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Defensive concern: Derby U21 conceded in 83% of 29 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.67 goals per match.

Solid form: Brentford U21 remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Brentford U21 VS Derby U21
3 Goals Scored 1.5
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.75
100% Over 1.5 75%
100% Over 2.5 50%
63% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Brentford U21

(Home)
01 May
Everton U21
4 : 2
Brentford U21
27 Apr
Brentford U21
2 : 0
Derby U21
19 Apr
Brentford U21
2 : 2
Swansea U21
14 Apr
Peterborough U21
1 : 1
Brentford U21
06 Apr
Brentford U21
4 : 0
Cardiff U21
Page 1 of 7

Derby U21

(Away)
27 Apr
Brentford U21
2 : 0
Derby U21
13 Apr
Reading U21
4 : 1
Derby U21
06 Apr
Derby U21
2 : 1
Sunderland U21
03 Apr
Derby U21
1 : 0
Manchester City U21
20 Mar
Derby U21
1 : 0
Middlesbrough U21
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Stoke City U211
Peterborough U213
Nottingham U213
Charlton U212
Sheffield Utd U211
Norwich U213
Swansea U212
Newcastle Utd U210
Reading U210
Huddersfield U211
Bournemouth U211
Wolves U210
Everton U213
Watford U212
Brentford U212
Derby U210
Quarter-finals
Peterborough U210
Nottingham U211
Norwich U211
Swansea U210
Huddersfield U214
Bournemouth U211
Everton U214
Brentford U212
Semi-finals
Nottingham U211
Norwich U212
Huddersfield U213
Everton U211
Final
Norwich U212
Huddersfield U214