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Brest vs Le Havre

France France

Ligue 1 2025/2026 Stade Francis-Le Blé, Brest
Our Tip

Match Events

21'
Zouaoui Y.
38'
Doumbia K.
45' Event
Del Castillo R.
Assist: Lala K.

AI Match Summary

The Ligue 1 2025/2026 game between Brest and Le Havre finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Brest.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Brest
39%
Draws
30%
Le Havre
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Brest come out ahead of Le Havre on wins alone.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Regular Ligue 1 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Brest have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
Brest Clean Sheet 12%
Le Havre Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Brest Le Havre
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 8 6
Draws 7 11
Losses 13 11
Goals Scored 1 1.5
Goals Conceded 2 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.00 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 8, 2026 Ligue 1
Brest vs Le Havre
2:0
Oct 29, 2025 Ligue 1
Le Havre vs Brest
1:0
Jul 30, 2025 Club Friendly
Brest vs Le Havre
1:0
Jan 26, 2025 Ligue 1
Le Havre vs Brest
0:1
Oct 6, 2024 Ligue 1
Brest vs Le Havre
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Brest Compare

Top Goalscorer Del Castillo R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ajorque L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Le Havre Compare

Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Brest 30 / 100
Le Havre 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Brest Le Havre

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick HAV Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Brest scored in 68% of their last 28 games.

Le Havre's defensive record shows goals conceded in 79% of 28 matches.

Historical meetings average 1.40 goals per match.

Solid form: Brest remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Brest VS Le Havre
1 Goals Scored 1.5
2 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Brest

(Home)
22 Jul
Brest
0 : 2
Al Wakra
18 Jul
Brest
2 : 2
Concarneau
17 May
Brest
1 : 1
Angers
13 May
Brest
1 : 2
Strasbourg
10 May
PSG
1 : 0
Brest
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Le Havre

(Away)
25 Jul
Le Havre
2 : 1
Red Star
17 Jul
Le Havre
1 : 2
Amiens SC
17 May
Lorient
0 : 2
Le Havre
10 May
Le Havre
0 : 1
Marseille
03 May
Lille
1 : 1
Le Havre
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1PSG34244674:2976
2Lens34224866:3570
3Lille34187952:3761
4Lyon341861053:4060
5Marseille341851163:4559
6Rennes34178959:5059
7Monaco341661260:5454
8Strasbourg341581158:4753
9Toulouse341291347:4645
10Lorient3411121148:5145
11Paris FC3411111247:5044
12Brest341091543:5539
13Angers34991629:4836
14Le Havre347141332:4435
15Auxerre348101634:4434
16Nice347111637:6032
17Nantes34592029:5224
18Metz34382332:7617
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligue 1 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Ligue 2 (Main)