Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Brisbane City vs Peninsula

Australia Australia

NPL Queensland Spencer Park, Brisbane
Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
Sehovic A.
42' Event
McGowan M.
70' Event
Hitchcock J.

AI Match Summary

The NPL Queensland game between Brisbane City and Peninsula finished 1-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Peninsula.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Brisbane City
40%
Draws
29%
Peninsula
Draw rate projection: 40% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Peninsula carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular NPL Queensland form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Peninsula here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.8%
Brisbane City Clean Sheet 10%
Peninsula Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Brisbane City Peninsula
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 14 16
Draws 6 6
Losses 9 8
Goals Scored 2.13 2.38
Goals Conceded 1.88 0.88
Expected Goals (xG) 2.13 2.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.88 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 8, 2026 NPL Queensland
Brisbane City vs Peninsula
1:4
Aug 15, 2025 NPL Queensland
Peninsula vs Brisbane City
1:0
May 3, 2025 NPL Queensland
Brisbane City vs Peninsula
2:1
Aug 4, 2024 NPL Queensland
Peninsula vs Brisbane City
1:0
Apr 28, 2024 NPL Queensland
Brisbane City vs Peninsula
2:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Brisbane City Compare

Top Goalscorer Sehovic A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.64
Avg xA / game 1.06

Peninsula Compare

Top Goalscorer McGowan M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Hitchcock J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.16
Avg xA / game 1.32

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Brisbane City 30 / 100
Peninsula 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Brisbane City Peninsula

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Brisbane City scored in 86% of their last 29 games.

H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.

Defensive concern: Peninsula conceded in 70% of 30 recent games.

Recent resilience: Brisbane City stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Brisbane City VS Peninsula
2.13 Goals Scored 2.38
1.88 Goals Conceded 0.88
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 75%
63% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Brisbane City

(Home)
18 Jul
Rochedale
2 : 3
Brisbane City
12 Jul
Gold Coast Knights SC
0 : 0
Brisbane City
05 Jul
Brisbane City
1 : 1
Brisbane Roar U23
27 Jun
Magic United TFA FC
3 : 5
Brisbane City
20 Jun
Eastern Suburbs
3 : 1
Brisbane City
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Peninsula

(Away)
18 Jul
Moreton City Excelsior
2 : 2
Peninsula
14 Jul
APIA Leichhardt
2 : 1
Peninsula
10 Jul
Peninsula
0 : 0
Wynnum Wolves
04 Jul
Eastern Suburbs
1 : 3
Peninsula
27 Jun
Peninsula
3 : 1
Brisbane Roar U23
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Queensland Lions19142350:2044
2Peninsula19134245:2243
3Moreton City Excelsior19113549:3036
4Gold Coast Knights SC19104542:2834
5Brisbane City1986541:4130
6Wynnum Wolves1985631:3529
7Eastern Suburbs1991933:3128
8Olympic FC19721034:3923
9Magic United TFA FC19511328:5516
10Rochedale19431229:4815
11Gold Coast Utd19421323:3714
12Brisbane Roar U2319411427:4613
Promotion - NPL Queensland (Play Offs)
Relegation - Queensland Premier League (Main)