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Stadium Background

Brisbane Roar vs Wellington Phoenix

Australia Australia

A-League Suncorp Stadium
Our Tip

Match Events

14' Event
Valkanis D.
Assist: McGarry J.
25'
Klein S.
36' Event
Piper C.
Assist: Hughes I.

AI Match Summary

The A-League game between Brisbane Roar and Wellington Phoenix finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Wellington Phoenix.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Brisbane Roar
40%
Draws
29%
Wellington Phoenix
Draw rate projection: 40% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Wellington Phoenix come out ahead of Brisbane Roar on wins alone.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Wellington Phoenix here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Brisbane Roar Clean Sheet 20%
Wellington Phoenix Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Brisbane Roar Wellington Phoenix
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 10 12
Draws 8 6
Losses 12 12
Goals Scored 1 1
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 21, 2026 A-League
Brisbane Roar vs Wellington Phoenix
1:2
Jan 3, 2026 A-League
Brisbane Roar vs Wellington Phoenix
0:3
Oct 26, 2025 A-League
Wellington Phoenix vs Brisbane Roar
2:1
May 14, 2025 Australia Cup
Wellington Phoenix vs Brisbane Roar
1:0
Apr 26, 2025 A-League
Brisbane Roar vs Wellington Phoenix
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Brisbane Roar Compare

Top Goalscorer Valkanis D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Wellington Phoenix Compare

Top Goalscorer Piper C.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Eze I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Brisbane Roar 32 / 100
Wellington Phoenix 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Brisbane Roar Wellington Phoenix

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Wellington Phoenix conceded in 80% of 30 recent games.

Brisbane Roar scored in 77% of their last 30 games.

These sides typically produce 2.20 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Brisbane Roar remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Brisbane Roar VS Wellington Phoenix
1 Goals Scored 1
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Newcastle Jets26153855:3948
2Adelaide Utd26127746:3643
3Auckland FC26119642:2942
4Melbourne Victory26117844:3340
5Sydney FC26116933:2539
6Melbourne City26108833:3338
7Macarthur FC26971037:4434
8Wellington Phoenix26961136:4833
9Central Coast26881035:4232
10Perth Glory26871132:3931
11Brisbane Roar26681227:3626
12Western Sydney Wanderers26561527:4321