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Brusque vs Hercilio Luz

Brazil Brazil

Catarinense 2025 Estádio Augusto Bauer
Our Tip

Match Events

33' Event
Paulinho Moccelin
46'
Sub
Emanuel Jesus In: Luiz Felipe
Out: Emanuel Jesus
46'
Sub
Mateus Mendes In: Leo Herrero
Out: Mateus Mendes

AI Match Summary

The Catarinense 2025 game between Brusque and Hercilio Luz finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Brusque.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Brusque
33%
Draws
40%
Hercilio Luz
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Hercilio Luz

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Brusque come out ahead of Hercilio Luz on wins alone.
  • Model gives Hercilio Luz a 40% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Brusque Clean Sheet 13%
Hercilio Luz Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Brusque Hercilio Luz
Matches Played 31 27
Wins 14 12
Draws 9 6
Losses 8 9
Goals Scored 1 2.38
Goals Conceded 1 0.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 2.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 22, 2025 Catarinense
Brusque vs Hercilio Luz
3:1
Jan 11, 2025 Club Friendly
Brusque vs Hercilio Luz
0:0
Feb 18, 2024 Catarinense
Brusque vs Hercilio Luz
1:1
Jan 22, 2023 Catarinense
Brusque vs Hercilio Luz
2:1
Jan 30, 2022 Catarinense
Hercilio Luz vs Brusque
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Brusque Compare

Top Goalscorer Paulinho Moccelin
1 Goals
Assists Leader Alemao E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Hercilio Luz Compare

Top Goalscorer Luiz Felipe
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.16
Avg xA / game 1.32

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Brusque 27 / 100
Hercilio Luz 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Brusque Hercilio Luz

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick HER Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Brusque scored in 71% of their last 31 outings.

Hercilio Luz has conceded goals in 67% of their last 27 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Brusque stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Brusque VS Hercilio Luz
1 Goals Scored 2.38
1 Goals Conceded 0.75
50% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Criciuma1155116:720
2Santa Catarina1154219:1319
3Avai1153313:618
4Brusque1144313:816
5Chapecoense-SC1137114:1116
6Figueirense1143419:1515
7Marcilio Dias113538:914
8Joinville1135311:1514
9Barra FC (Santa Catarina)112727:913
10Concordia113269:1911
11Caravaggio112457:1510
12Hercilio Luz111377:166