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Bugesera vs Etincelles

Rwanda Rwanda

Peace Cup
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-0. The second leg ended 1-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%
Bugesera
15%
Draws
59%
Etincelles
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Etincelles

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Bugesera carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Etincelles are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • Bugesera have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Bugesera, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Bugesera have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Bugesera Clean Sheet 18%
Etincelles Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bugesera Etincelles
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 12 8
Draws 5 9
Losses 13 13
Goals Scored 1.07 1.07
Goals Conceded 1.23 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 4, 2026 Premier League
Bugesera vs Etincelles
3:0
Mar 18, 2026 Peace Cup
Etincelles vs Bugesera
2:0
Mar 11, 2026 Peace Cup
Bugesera vs Etincelles
1:0
Jan 11, 2026 Premier League
Etincelles vs Bugesera
1:2
May 24, 2025 Premier League
Etincelles vs Bugesera
0:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bugesera 28 / 100
Etincelles 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bugesera Etincelles

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Etincelles Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Bugesera scored in 67% of their last 30 outings.

Etincelles's defensive record shows goals conceded in 77% of 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Bugesera stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Bugesera VS Etincelles
0.88 Goals Scored 0.88
1.75 Goals Conceded 2
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Bugesera

(Home)
30 May
Rutsiro
0 : 2
Bugesera
26 May
Rayon Sport
2 : 0
Bugesera
16 May
Mukura Victory Sports
2 : 2
Bugesera
09 May
Gicumbi
2 : 1
Bugesera
06 May
Bugesera
0 : 4
Marines
Page 1 of 6

Etincelles

(Away)
30 May
Etincelles
2 : 1
Al-Hilal Omdurman
26 May
Gorilla
0 : 4
Etincelles
22 May
Etincelles
1 : 6
Gorilla
16 May
Marines
2 : 3
Etincelles
13 May
APR
3 : 1
Etincelles
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Bugesera 1
Etincelles 2
Gasogi United 1
APR 4
Gorilla 2
AS Kigali 2
Police 0
Rayon Sport 1
Semi-finals
Etincelles 2
APR 6
Gorilla 1
Rayon Sport 1
Final
APR 2
Rayon Sport 1
Etincelles 1
Gorilla 6