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Bugesera vs Marines - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Rwanda Rwanda

Premier League 2025/2026
Bugesera Logo

Bugesera

0 - 4
FT
Marines Logo

Marines

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Marines in this Premier League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-4 — backing the pre-match view that favored Marines.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Bugesera
20%
Draws
51%
Marines
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Marines

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Bugesera have won more games recently than Marines.
  • Win probability leans Bugesera's way, sitting at 36%.
  • Regular Premier League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Bugesera Clean Sheet 11%
Marines Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bugesera Marines
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 11 9
Draws 4 9
Losses 13 11
Goals Scored 1.04 1.48
Goals Conceded 1.25 1.48
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 6, 2026 Premier League
Bugesera vs Marines
0:4
Nov 30, 2025 Premier League
Marines vs Bugesera
2:1
Apr 26, 2025 Premier League
Bugesera vs Marines
2:1
Dec 30, 2024 Premier League
Marines vs Bugesera
1:4
Apr 5, 2024 Premier League
Marines vs Bugesera
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bugesera 35 / 100
Marines 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bugesera Marines

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Marines has conceded goals in 83% of their last 29 outings.

Bugesera found the back of the net in 64% of recent matches (28 games).

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Solid form: Bugesera remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Bugesera VS Marines
0.75 Goals Scored 1.88
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Bugesera

(Home)
15 Sept
Kiyovu
1 : 0
Bugesera
30 May
Rutsiro
0 : 2
Bugesera
26 May
Rayon Sport
2 : 0
Bugesera
16 May
Mukura Victory Sports
2 : 2
Bugesera
09 May
Gicumbi
2 : 1
Bugesera
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Marines

(Away)
16 Sept
APR
4 : 2
Marines
06 Sept
Marines
2 : 0
Kigali FC
30 May
Marines
3 : 2
Muhanga
24 May
Marines
1 : 1
Musanze
16 May
Marines
2 : 3
Etincelles
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Hilal Omdurman 34 23 6 5 74:25 75
2 APR 34 19 11 4 50:28 68
3 Al Merreikh 34 16 11 7 41:24 59
4 Rayon Sport 34 14 14 6 40:30 56
5 Kiyovu 34 13 14 7 34:21 53
6 Police 34 12 16 6 29:19 52
7 Mukura Victory Sports 34 12 11 11 36:38 47
8 Marines 34 12 9 13 47:43 45
9 Bugesera 34 12 8 14 34:39 44
10 Musanze 34 11 10 13 38:37 43
11 Gorilla 34 10 10 14 31:42 40
12 Gicumbi 34 10 8 16 38:54 38
13 Etincelles 34 7 16 11 32:40 37
14 Kigali FC 34 8 11 15 27:39 35
15 Gasogi United 34 8 11 15 29:44 35
16 Amagaju 34 9 8 17 19:38 35
17 Muhanga 34 8 7 19 25:46 31
18 Rutsiro 34 6 11 17 30:47 29
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)