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BUL vs Ntugasaze

Uganda Uganda

Premier League FUFA Technical Centre, Njeru
Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
Mpasa S.
Assist: Achidi S.
29' Event
Nsamba F.
43' Event
Aprem M.
Assist: Ssewagudde D.

AI Match Summary

BUL in this Premier League matchup, with the score ending 4-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored BUL.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

53%
BUL
15%
Draws
32%
Ntugasaze
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: BUL

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

53% / Medium Confidence
  • Ntugasaze have won more games recently than BUL.
  • Win probability leans BUL's way, sitting at 70%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
BUL Clean Sheet 68%
Ntugasaze Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric BUL Ntugasaze
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 10 13
Draws 8 8
Losses 11 8
Goals Scored 1.17 1.45
Goals Conceded 1.17 1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 8, 2026 Premier League
BUL vs Ntugasaze
4:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

BUL Compare

Top Goalscorer Mpasa S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Aprem M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Ntugasaze Compare

Top Goalscorer Nsamba F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

BUL 77 / 100
Ntugasaze 15 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
BUL Ntugasaze

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick BUL Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 5.00 goals.

BUL scored in 69% of their last 29 games.

Solid form: BUL remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Difficult form: Ntugasaze registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

BUL VS Ntugasaze
0.75 Goals Scored 1.5
1.38 Goals Conceded 1
50% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

BUL

(Home)
08 Sept
BUL
4 : 1
Ntugasaze
03 Sept
Kataka
1 : 4
BUL
30 Aug
BUL
1 : 0
Express FC
23 May
Entebbe UPPC
4 : 0
BUL
19 May
BUL
1 : 1
Kitara
Page 1 of 6

Ntugasaze

(Away)
08 Sept
BUL
4 : 1
Ntugasaze
02 Sept
Ntugasaze
1 : 3
Maroons
29 Aug
Blacks Power
1 : 0
Ntugasaze
06 Jun
Kiyinda Boys
0 : 3
Ntugasaze
24 May
Ntugasaze
2 : 1
Bunyaruguru
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 BUL 4 4 0 0 11:3 12
2 NEC FC 4 3 1 0 9:2 10
3 Villa 4 3 1 0 7:1 10
4 Blacks Power 4 3 0 1 5:3 9
5 Police 4 2 1 1 3:1 7
6 Entebbe UPPC 4 2 1 1 3:2 7
7 Lugazi 4 2 0 2 4:6 6
8 UPDF FC 4 1 2 1 2:2 5
9 Express FC 4 1 1 2 3:4 4
10 Kampala City 4 1 1 2 1:4 4
11 Uganda Revenue 3 1 0 2 3:6 3
12 Maroons 4 1 0 3 5:6 3
13 Kitara 2 0 2 0 2:2 2
14 Mbarara City 3 0 2 1 0:1 2
15 Kataka 3 0 1 2 1:5 1
16 Kigezi HomeBoyz 3 0 1 2 1:5 1
17 Vipers 1 0 0 1 0:1 0
18 Ntugasaze 3 0 0 3 2:8 0
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Big League 2027/2028 (Main)