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BUL vs UPDF FC - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Uganda Uganda

Premier League 2025/2026 FUFA Technical Centre, Njeru
Our Tip

Match Events

7' Event
Ochen E.
34' Event
Ssewagudde D.
39' Event
Bogere I.

AI Match Summary

UPDF FC in this Premier League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-5 — backing the pre-match view that favored UPDF FC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

56%
BUL
20%
Draws
24%
UPDF FC
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: BUL

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

56% / Medium Confidence
  • BUL have won more games recently than UPDF FC.
  • Model gives BUL a 56% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
BUL Clean Sheet 68%
UPDF FC Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric BUL UPDF FC
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 11 5
Draws 7 9
Losses 11 15
Goals Scored 1.24 0.72
Goals Conceded 1.21 1.21
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 0.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 21, 2026 Premier League
BUL vs UPDF FC
2:5
Jan 30, 2026 Premier League
UPDF FC vs BUL
0:1
May 24, 2025 Premier League
UPDF FC vs BUL
2:3
Dec 4, 2024 Premier League
BUL vs UPDF FC
0:2
Mar 12, 2024 Premier League
BUL vs UPDF FC
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

BUL Compare

Top Goalscorer Ssewagudde D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Onek H.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

UPDF FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Ochen E.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Bogere I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.63
Avg xA / game 0.38

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

BUL 77 / 100
UPDF FC 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
BUL UPDF FC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick BUL Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.20 goals per match.

Attacking prowess: BUL scored in 72% of their last 29 outings.

UPDF FC's defensive record shows goals conceded in 66% of 29 matches.

Recent resilience: BUL stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

BUL VS UPDF FC
1.25 Goals Scored 0.38
1 Goals Conceded 1.25
50% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

BUL

(Home)
15 Sept
BUL
2 : 1
Blacks Power
08 Sept
BUL
4 : 1
Ntugasaze
03 Sept
Kataka
1 : 4
BUL
30 Aug
BUL
1 : 0
Express FC
23 May
Entebbe UPPC
4 : 0
BUL
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UPDF FC

(Away)
17 Sept
UPDF FC
1 : 0
Maroons
10 Sept
Police
0 : 0
UPDF FC
01 Sept
Entebbe UPPC
2 : 1
UPDF FC
29 Aug
UPDF FC
0 : 0
Kataka
23 May
Villa
2 : 1
UPDF FC
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vipers 30 19 10 1 55:17 67
2 Kampala City 30 19 5 6 46:22 62
3 Villa 30 18 7 5 47:17 61
4 Kitara 30 16 8 6 43:22 56
5 Entebbe UPPC 30 14 9 7 30:20 51
6 NEC FC 30 13 12 5 31:22 51
7 Police 30 13 8 9 42:35 47
8 Maroons 30 9 11 10 26:27 38
9 BUL 30 9 10 11 30:33 37
10 Express FC 30 9 10 11 28:31 37
11 Uganda Revenue 30 5 16 9 27:30 31
12 Mbarara City 30 6 9 15 26:46 27
13 Lugazi 30 5 10 15 19:36 25
14 UPDF FC 30 5 7 18 24:41 22
15 Calvary 30 4 9 17 14:39 21
16 Buhimba 30 4 3 23 16:66 15
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
Relegation - Big League (Main)