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Buriram United F.C. vs Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai

Asia Asia

AFC Champions League 2025/2026 Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium, Jeddah
Buriram United F.C. Logo

Buriram United F.C.

Sat, Apr 18, 2026
2 - 3
04:15 PM
Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai Logo

Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai

Our Tip

Match Events

13' Event
Zulj P.
Own Goal
46'
Sub
Toku E. In: Walsh S.
Out: Toku E.
49' Event
Ezatolahi S.
Assist: Renan V.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

This match ends 2-3, with Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

38%
Buriram United F.C.
35%
Draws
27%
Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Buriram United F.C.

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

38% / Low Confidence
  • Buriram United F.C. carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 38% — that's where the model lands on Buriram United F.C. taking it.
  • Buriram United F.C. have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Buriram United F.C. Clean Sheet 20%
Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Buriram United F.C. Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai
Matches Played 32 28
Wins 21 13
Draws 6 8
Losses 5 7
Goals Scored 2.5 2
Goals Conceded 0.88 1.21
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 18, 2026 AFC Champions League
Buriram United F.C. vs Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai
2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Buriram United F.C. Compare

Top Goalscorer Zulj P.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6

Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai Compare

Top Goalscorer Ezatolahi S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Renan V.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Buriram United F.C. 58 / 100
Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Buriram United F.C. Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Buriram United F.C. Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Buriram United F.C. scored in 94% of their last 32 outings.

Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai let in goals in 82% of their last 28 matches.

H2H data points to 5.00 goals as a typical output.

Buriram United F.C. went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Buriram United F.C. VS Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai
2.13 Goals Scored 1.5
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Buriram United F.C.

(Home)
20 Sept
Chonburi
0 : 1
Buriram United F.C.
15 Sept
Johor DT
1 : 1
Buriram United F.C.
11 Sept
Buriram United F.C.
1 : 1
Chiangrai Utd
06 Sept
Sukhothai
1 : 3
Buriram United F.C.
29 Aug
Buriram United F.C.
2 : 1
Port MTI FC
Page 1 of 7

Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai

(Away)
19 Sept
Hatta
2 : 2
Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai
14 Sept
Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai
1 : 0
Tractor
10 Sept
United FC
1 : 1
Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai
05 Sept
Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai
1 : 3
Al Jazira
28 Aug
Al Wasl
0 : 1
Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Al Hilal 3
Al-Sadd 4
Vissel Kobe 3
Seoul 1
Al Ahli SC 1
Al-Duhail 0
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2
Johor DT 3
Machida Zelvia 1
Gangwon 0
Al Ittihad 1
Al Wahda 0
Buriram United F.C. 2
Melbourne City 1
Tractor 0
Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai 3
Quarter-finals
Al-Sadd 3
Vissel Kobe 4
Al Ahli SC 2
Johor DT 1
Machida Zelvia 1
Al Ittihad 0
Buriram United F.C. 2
Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai 3
Semi-finals
Vissel Kobe 1
Al Ahli SC 2
Machida Zelvia 1
Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai 0
Final
Al Ahli SC 1
Machida Zelvia 0