Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Burkina Faso vs Guinea Bissau

World World

Friendly International Stade du 4 Aout
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Burkina Faso play Guinea Bissau in the Friendly International. It looks like a close match. Recently, Burkina Faso averaged 1.67 goals scored and 1.03 conceded. Guinea Bissau averaged 0.75 goals scored and 1.64 conceded. In past meetings, Burkina Faso won 3, Guinea Bissau won 0, and they drew 2. Their last match on Mar 31, 2026 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.83 for Burkina Faso and 0.66 for Guinea Bissau. This points to a Burkina Faso double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

53%
Burkina Faso
27%
Draws
20%
Guinea Bissau
Draw rate projection: 27% Favored: Burkina Faso

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Burkina Faso picked up more points recently compared to Guinea Bissau.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.83 vs 0.66 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 74%
Over 2.5 Goals 44%
Over 3.5 Goals 26%
Over 4.5 Goals 13%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 47%
Burkina Faso Clean Sheet 28%
Guinea Bissau Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 67%
Second Half Goal 70%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Burkina Faso Guinea Bissau
Matches Played 33 28
Wins 17 4
Draws 6 7
Losses 10 17
Goals Scored 1.67 0.75
Goals Conceded 1.03 1.64
Expected Goals (xG) 2.38 0.57
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 1.29

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 31, 2026 Friendly International
Burkina Faso vs Guinea Bissau
1:1
Mar 28, 2026 Friendly International
Burkina Faso vs Guinea Bissau
5:0
Mar 24, 2025 World Championship
Guinea Bissau vs Burkina Faso
1:2
Nov 17, 2023 World Championship
Burkina Faso vs Guinea Bissau
1:1
Mar 22, 2018 Friendly International
Guinea Bissau vs Burkina Faso
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Burkina Faso Compare

Top Goalscorer Nagalo A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.83
Avg xA / game 1.19

Guinea Bissau Compare

Top Goalscorer Gomes F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.52
Avg xA / game 0.32

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Burkina Faso 53 / 100
Guinea Bissau 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Burkina Faso Guinea Bissau

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Burkina Faso Win (1)
Secondary Pick Burkina Faso & Under 3.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +17.7%
2.22
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +15.7%
2.63
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Burkina Faso attacking → ← attacking Guinea Bissau

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Burkina Faso scored in 73% of their last 33 games.

Guinea Bissau let in goals in 82% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Burkina Faso went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Guinea Bissau lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

57 Points in last 5 19
2.38 Goals expected (xG) 0.57
0.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.29