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Burnley W vs Durham W - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

England England

Women's League Cup Turf Moor, Burnley
Sun, Oct 18, 2026
VS
01:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

A one-off knockout match in the Women's League Cup. Burnley W go into this one as the clear favorite. Durham W have shipped 2.2 goals a game lately, while Burnley W have conceded 0.67 and scored 2.6. No recent head-to-head history to lean on here — form is the better guide. xG projections (2.06 - 1.19) back Burnley W to edge this. Home (1) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

80%
Burnley W
20%
Draws
0%
Durham W
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Burnley W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

80% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Burnley W lately — more wins on the board than Durham W.
  • Win probability leans Burnley W's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Burnley W have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • These two have never met before — a fresh matchup with no historical pattern to lean on.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Burnley W Clean Sheet 20%
Durham W Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Burnley W Durham W
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 21 4
Draws 4 7
Losses 5 19
Goals Scored 2.6 1.1
Goals Conceded 0.67 2.2
Expected Goals (xG) 2.06 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Burnley W 85 / 100
Durham W 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Burnley W Durham W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Burnley W Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Durham W has conceded goals in 90% of their last 30 outings.

Away concern: Durham W has suffered 5 losses in 5 recent matches.

Burnley W's goal record stands at 77% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Burnley W has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Burnley W VS Durham W
1.5 Goals Scored 1.38
1 Goals Conceded 2.63
63% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 88%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Burnley W

(Home)
04 Oct
Nottingham W
2 : 0
Burnley W
26 Sept
Burnley W
0 : 0
Bristol City W
18 Sept
Wolverhampton W
3 : 0
Burnley W
13 Sept
Burnley W
1 : 2
Sunderland W
04 Sept
Watford W
0 : 0
Burnley W
Page 1 of 6

Durham W

(Away)
04 Oct
Durham W
0 : 3
Newcastle Utd W
30 Sept
Durham W
1 : 5
Manchester United W
27 Sept
Sheffield Utd W
4 : 1
Durham W
20 Sept
Durham W
1 : 2
Nottingham W
13 Sept
Leicester W
4 : 2
Durham W
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Manchester United W 2 2 0 0 15:2 6
2 Aston Villa W 2 2 0 0 5:1 6
3 Crystal Palace W 2 2 0 0 4:0 6
4 Liverpool W 2 2 0 0 8:5 6
5 London City Lionesses W 2 2 0 0 3:0 6
6 West Ham W 2 2 0 0 3:1 5
7 Tottenham W 2 1 0 1 1:0 4
8 Brighton W 2 1 0 1 4:1 3
9 Everton W 1 1 0 0 2:0 3
10 Bristol City W 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
11 Burnley W 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
12 Wolverhampton W 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
13 Watford W 1 0 0 1 0:1 0
14 Ipswich W 1 0 0 1 0:1 0
15 Sunderland W 1 0 0 1 2:4 0
16 Newcastle Utd W 1 0 0 1 1:3 0
17 Southampton FC W 1 0 0 1 1:3 0
18 Nottingham W 1 0 0 1 0:2 0
19 Leicester W 1 0 0 1 0:2 0
20 Birmingham W 2 0 0 2 3:6 0
21 Durham W 1 0 0 1 1:5 0
22 Charlton W 2 0 0 2 0:7 0
23 Sheffield Utd W 1 0 0 1 1:10 0
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