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Gemlikspor vs Yesil Yalova FK

Turkey Turkey

3. Lig Group 1 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

16' Event
Gunes F.
Assist: Kucukdurmus M.
58' Event
Topatar I.
Assist: Arigun E.
69' Event
Kucukdurmus M.
Assist: Koylu K.

AI Match Summary

The 3. Lig Group 1 2025/2026 game between Gemlikspor and Yesil Yalova FK finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Gemlikspor.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Gemlikspor
6%
Draws
4%
Yesil Yalova FK
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Gemlikspor

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Yesil Yalova FK haven't matched Gemlikspor's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Gemlikspor's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular 3. Lig Group 1 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Yesil Yalova FK here — 2 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Gemlikspor Clean Sheet 68%
Yesil Yalova FK Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gemlikspor Yesil Yalova FK
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 10 9
Draws 8 10
Losses 12 11
Goals Scored 1.5 1.13
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 24, 2026 3. Lig Group 1
Gemlikspor vs Yesil Yalova FK
3:2
Nov 29, 2025 3. Lig Group 1
Yesil Yalova FK vs Gemlikspor
3:0
Sep 2, 2025 Turkish Cup
Yesil Yalova FK vs Gemlikspor
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Gemlikspor Compare

Top Goalscorer Kucukdurmus M.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Gunes F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Yesil Yalova FK Compare

Top Goalscorer Topatar I.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Demir M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gemlikspor 95 / 100
Yesil Yalova FK 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gemlikspor Yesil Yalova FK

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick GEM Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.33 goals per match.

Yesil Yalova FK lost 5 of their last 5 games.

Gemlikspor found the back of the net in 67% of recent matches (30 games).

Yesil Yalova FK has conceded goals in 70% of their last 30 outings.

Scoring Trends

Gemlikspor VS Yesil Yalova FK
1.5 Goals Scored 1.13
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Gemlikspor

(Home)
18 Apr
Gemlikspor
3 : 1
Kestel Cilekspor
12 Apr
Silivrispor
1 : 2
Gemlikspor
05 Apr
Gemlikspor
2 : 1
Bulvarspor
28 Mar
Kucukcekmece
3 : 0
Gemlikspor
24 Mar
Gemlikspor
3 : 2
Yesil Yalova FK
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Yesil Yalova FK

(Away)
18 Apr
Inkilap Futbol Spor Kulubu
1 : 0
Yesil Yalova FK
12 Apr
Yesil Yalova FK
0 : 2
Corluspor
05 Apr
Etimesgut
2 : 0
Yesil Yalova FK
28 Mar
Yesil Yalova FK
1 : 2
1926 Polatli Belediye
24 Mar
Gemlikspor
3 : 2
Yesil Yalova FK
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Inegol Kafkas30188449:2662
2Corluspor30187557:2361
3Kucukcekmece30175854:3056
4Etimesgut301410636:2352
5Bursa Yildirimspor301310738:3149
6Silivrispor301271142:3643
7Beykoz Ishakli Spor30913834:3540
8Gemlikspor301081233:4238
9Yesil Yalova FK309101138:3637
10Galata Spor Kulubu301071334:3437
11Bulvarspor30981335:4735
12Inkilap Futbol Spor Kulubu30714923:3635
13Cankaya FK308101238:3734
14Kestel Cilekspor30861627:3930
151926 Polatli Belediye30771624:4428
16Edirnespor Genclik30362122:6515
Promotion - 3. Lig Group 1 2025/2026 (Play Offs)