Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Burundi vs Chad

Africa Africa

Africa Cup of Nations Intwari Stadium, Bujumbura
Our Tip

Match Events

14' Event
Kanakimana B.
Assist: Liongola J.
22' Event
Kanakimana B.
Assist: Liongola J.
70' Event
Girumugisha J.
Assist: Ndayishimiye Y.

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 4-0. This leg finished 4-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

73%
Burundi
15%
Draws
12%
Chad
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Burundi

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / High Confidence
  • Burundi have won more games recently than Chad.
  • Model gives Burundi a 73% chance of winning this.
  • Burundi have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Burundi, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 24.4%
Burundi Clean Sheet 68%
Chad Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Burundi Chad
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 9 2
Draws 4 8
Losses 16 20
Goals Scored 1.1 0.57
Goals Conceded 1.28 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 31, 2026 Africa Cup of Nations
Burundi vs Chad
4:0
Mar 27, 2026 Africa Cup of Nations
Chad vs Burundi
0:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Burundi Compare

Top Goalscorer Kanakimana B.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Girumugisha J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Chad Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Burundi 95 / 100
Chad 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Burundi Chad

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Burundi Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Chad has conceded goals in 87% of their last 30 outings.

H2H data points to 4.00 goals as a typical output.

Difficult form: Chad registered 4 defeats in their last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: Burundi scored in 41% of their last 29 outings.

Scoring Trends

Burundi VS Chad
0.63 Goals Scored 0.75
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.75
38% Over 1.5 75%
13% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Burundi

(Home)
26 May
Morocco
5 : 0
Burundi
31 Mar
Burundi
4 : 0
Chad
27 Mar
Chad
0 : 4
Burundi
14 Oct
Gabon
2 : 0
Burundi
09 Oct
Burundi
0 : 1
Kenya
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Chad

(Away)
31 Mar
Burundi
4 : 0
Chad
27 Mar
Chad
0 : 4
Burundi
17 Nov
Chad
2 : 2
Mozambique
14 Nov
Uganda
2 : 1
Chad
12 Oct
Chad
2 : 3
Central Africa
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Final
Djibouti 1
South Sudan 4
Chad 0
Burundi 8
Somalia 1
Mauritius 0
Seychelles 1
Lesotho 2
Eritrea 4
Eswatini 1
Sao Tome and Principe 0
Ethiopia 4