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Bury FC vs Chester

World World

Club Friendly 2025 Gigg Lane, Bury
Our Tip

Match Events

13' Event
Pedro D.
47' Event
Mottley-Henry D.
51' Event
Pedro D.

AI Match Summary

The Club Friendly 2025 game between Bury FC and Chester finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Bury FC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

54%
Bury FC
15%
Draws
31%
Chester
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Bury FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

54% / Medium Confidence
  • Bury FC carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 54% — that's where the model lands on Bury FC taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Bury FC Clean Sheet 20%
Chester Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bury FC Chester
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 20 17
Draws 1 5
Losses 7 8
Goals Scored 2.54 1.3
Goals Conceded 1.18 0.83
Expected Goals (xG) 2.31 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 12, 2025 Club Friendly
Bury FC vs Chester
3:1
Jul 21, 2018 Club Friendly
Chester vs Bury FC
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Bury FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Pedro D.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Trialist B
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.78
Avg xA / game 1.16

Chester Compare

Top Goalscorer Mottley-Henry D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bury FC 85 / 100
Chester 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bury FC Chester

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Bury FC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Bury FC found the back of the net in 82% of recent matches (28 games).

Chester has conceded goals in 60% of their last 30 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.50 goals when they meet.

Bury FC went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Bury FC VS Chester
3.5 Goals Scored 1.25
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 38%
63% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Bury FC

(Home)
26 Sept
Bury FC
4 : 3
Gainsborough
19 Sept
Bury FC
5 : 1
Workington
12 Sept
Bury FC
4 : 0
AFC Emley
05 Sept
Bury FC
8 : 0
Wythenshawe FC
31 Aug
Hyde
2 : 1
Bury FC
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Chester

(Away)
26 Sept
Chester
4 : 1
Worksop
19 Sept
Lower Breck
1 : 2
Chester
12 Sept
Buxton
3 : 1
Chester
08 Sept
Chester
0 : 1
Merthyr Town
05 Sept
Hebburn Town
1 : 1
Chester
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