Sport Picks
Buxoro vs Neftchi Fargona
Uzbekistan
Super League Buxoro FA Stadioni, Bukhara 
Match Events
36'
36'
Abduganiyev N.
37'
37'
Esanov S.
(Penalty)
45'
45'
Abduganiyev N.
Assist: Jovovic V.
AI Match Summary
Buxoro in this Super League matchup, with the score ending 4-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Buxoro.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
21%
15%
64%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Neftchi Fargona
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
15%
/ Low Confidence
- Buxoro haven't matched Neftchi Fargona's recent run of results.
- Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
- Regular Super League form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Buxoro Clean Sheet 10%
Neftchi Fargona Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Buxoro | Neftchi Fargona |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 31 |
| Wins | 11 | 22 |
| Draws | 7 | 4 |
| Losses | 11 | 5 |
| Goals Scored | 1.24 | 2.1 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.21 | 0.87 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.63 | 1.88 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 18, 2026 Super League
Buxoro vs Neftchi Fargona
4:1
Jul 16, 2026 Super League
Neftchi Fargona vs Buxoro
2:1
Nov 7, 2025 Super League
Buxoro vs Neftchi Fargona
1:1
Jun 20, 2025 Super League
Neftchi Fargona vs Buxoro
1:0
Sep 27, 2023 Super League
Neftchi Fargona vs Buxoro
3:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Buxoro Compare
Top Goalscorer Esanov S.
1 Goals Assists Leader Mamasidikov T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81
Neftchi Fargona Compare
Top Goalscorer Abduganiyev N.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Buxoro 30 / 100
Neftchi Fargona 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Buxoro Neftchi Fargona
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Buxoro scored in 83% of their last 29 games.
These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.
Defensive concern: Neftchi Fargona conceded in 48% of 31 recent games.
Solid form: Buxoro remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Buxoro VS Neftchi Fargona
1.88 Goals Scored 2
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.38
100% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Buxoro
(Home) 19 Sept
Bunyodkor
2 : 1 Buxoro
11 Sept
Buxoro
1 : 4 Navbahor Namangan
05 Sept
Qizilqum
3 : 2 Buxoro
24 Aug
Kokand 1912
1 : 1 Buxoro
18 Aug
Buxoro
4 : 1 Neftchi Fargona
Page 1 of 6
11 Sept
Buxoro
1 : 4 Navbahor Namangan
18 Aug
Buxoro
4 : 1 Neftchi Fargona
13 Aug
Buxoro
2 : 0 OKMK
01 Aug
Buxoro
2 : 1 Lok. Tashkent
21 Jul
Buxoro
1 : 0 Bunyodkor
Page 1 of 3
Neftchi Fargona
(Away) 20 Sept
Lok. Tashkent
0 : 1 Neftchi Fargona
14 Sept
Neftchi Fargona
1 : 0 Al Quwa Al Jawiya
09 Sept
Neftchi Fargona
2 : 1 Termez Surkhon
04 Sept
Nasaf Qarshi
6 : 2 Neftchi Fargona
29 Aug
Neftchi Fargona
1 : 0 Pakhtakor
Page 1 of 7
20 Sept
Lok. Tashkent
0 : 1 Neftchi Fargona
04 Sept
Nasaf Qarshi
6 : 2 Neftchi Fargona
18 Aug
Buxoro
4 : 1 Neftchi Fargona
13 Aug
Andijan
0 : 3 Neftchi Fargona
03 Aug
Din. Samarkand
0 : 0 Neftchi Fargona
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neftchi Fargona | 22 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 50:17 | 51 |
| 2 | Pakhtakor | 22 | 14 | 7 | 1 | 39:20 | 49 |
| 3 | Navbahor Namangan | 22 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 39:21 | 44 |
| 4 | Lok. Tashkent | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 36:28 | 35 |
| 5 | OKMK | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 31:29 | 35 |
| 6 | Nasaf Qarshi | 22 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 33:21 | 34 |
| 7 | Buxoro | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 32:29 | 34 |
| 8 | Din. Samarkand | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 33:34 | 30 |
| 9 | Andijan | 22 | 9 | 3 | 10 | 27:28 | 30 |
| 10 | Qizilqum | 22 | 9 | 2 | 11 | 23:30 | 29 |
| 11 | Sogdiana | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 38:43 | 28 |
| 12 | Termez Surkhon | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 19:28 | 26 |
| 13 | Bunyodkor | 22 | 7 | 1 | 14 | 22:36 | 22 |
| 14 | Xorazm Urganch | 22 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 18:32 | 21 |
| 15 | Kokand 1912 | 22 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 19:30 | 20 |
| 16 | Mashal Muborak | 22 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 11:44 | 4 |
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2 2027/2028 (Main)
Relegation - Pro Liga (Promotion)
Relegation - Pro Liga 2027 (Main)
