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Buzios vs Barra Mansa

Brazil Brazil

Carioca C
Our Tip

Match Events

22' Event
Kauan
71' Event
Felipe Pacheco
85' Event
Felipe Pacheco

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 0-2. The second leg ended 3-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
Buzios
35%
Draws
15%
Barra Mansa
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Buzios

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

50% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Buzios come out ahead of Barra Mansa on wins alone.
  • Model gives Buzios a 50% chance of winning this.
  • Buzios have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Buzios, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26%
Buzios Clean Sheet 68%
Barra Mansa Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Buzios Barra Mansa
Matches Played 24 28
Wins 10 8
Draws 4 7
Losses 10 13
Goals Scored 1.63 0.86
Goals Conceded 1.75 1.29
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 23, 2026 Carioca C
Barra Mansa vs Buzios
0:2
Jul 19, 2026 Carioca C
Buzios vs Barra Mansa
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Buzios Compare

Top Goalscorer Felipe Pacheco
2 Goals
Assists Leader Kauan
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Barra Mansa Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Buzios 95 / 100
Barra Mansa 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Buzios Barra Mansa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Buzios Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Buzios's goal record stands at 79% scoring rate across 24 recent games.

Barra Mansa let in goals in 64% of their last 28 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.50 goals when they meet.

Buzios went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Buzios VS Barra Mansa
2.25 Goals Scored 1
0.75 Goals Conceded 0.5
75% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Buzios

(Home)
26 Jul
Cardoso Moreira
2 : 1
Buzios
23 Jul
Barra Mansa
0 : 2
Buzios
19 Jul
Buzios
3 : 0
Barra Mansa
12 Jul
Buzios
1 : 1
Rio Barra
06 Jul
Rio Barra
0 : 1
Buzios
Page 1 of 5

Barra Mansa

(Away)
23 Jul
Barra Mansa
0 : 2
Buzios
19 Jul
Buzios
3 : 0
Barra Mansa
12 Jul
Barra Mansa
0 : 0
Uni Souza
07 Jul
Uni Souza
0 : 0
Barra Mansa
03 Jul
Barra Mansa
2 : 2
Cardoso Moreira
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Cardoso Moreira 1
Grande Rio Brescia Clube 0
Tigres Brasil 2
Campos AA 3
Rio Barra 1
Buzios 2
Barra Mansa 0
Uni Souza 0
Semi-finals
Cardoso Moreira 6
Campos AA 2
Buzios 5
Barra Mansa 0
Final
Cardoso Moreira 2
Buzios 1