Sport Picks

Uruguay

Liga AUF Uruguaya Estádio Parque Alfredo Víctor Viera

CA Cerro

1 - 0

Defensor Sp.

Our Tip

Match Events

28'

Aleman B.

40'

Cuello E.

48'

Arguello M.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Liga AUF Uruguaya game between CA Cerro and Defensor Sp. finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward CA Cerro.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%

CA Cerro

39%

Draws

31%

Defensor Sp.

Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence

Defensor Sp. haven't matched CA Cerro's recent run of results.
Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%

Over 1.5 Goals 69%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 19%

Over 4.5 Goals 9%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%

CA Cerro Clean Sheet 68%

Defensor Sp. Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	CA Cerro	Defensor Sp.
Matches Played	28	29
Wins	8	6
Draws	6	11
Losses	14	12
Goals Scored	0.63	0.63
Goals Conceded	2	1.25
Expected Goals (xG)	0.63	0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	2.00	1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 5, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya

CA Cerro vs Defensor Sp.

Possession: 47% - 58% Cards: 1 - 1

1:0

Oct 11, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya

CA Cerro vs Defensor Sp.

Possession: 59% - 56% Cards: 3 - 3

1:0

Jun 22, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya

Defensor Sp. vs CA Cerro

Possession: 40% - 50% Cards: 4 - 0

2:1

Apr 14, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya

Defensor Sp. vs CA Cerro

Possession: 47% - 50% Cards: 1 - 0

3:2

Sep 7, 2024 Liga AUF Uruguaya

CA Cerro vs Defensor Sp.

Possession: 41% - 44% Cards: 4 - 3

1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

CA Cerro Compare

Top Goalscorer Aleman B.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.48

Avg xA / game 0.32

Defensor Sp. Compare

Avg xG / game 0.57

Avg xA / game 0.35

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

CA Cerro 41 / 100

Defensor Sp. 31 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

CA Cerro Defensor Sp.

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CER Win (1)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No

Correct Score 1:0

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensor Sp. has conceded goals in 79% of their last 29 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.40 goals when they meet.

CA Cerro scored in 57% of their last 28 games.

Recent resilience: CA Cerro stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

CA Cerro VS Defensor Sp.

0.63 Goals Scored 0.63

2 Goals Conceded 1.25

63% Over 1.5 75%

50% Over 2.5 25%

38% Over 3.5 0%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Racing Montevideo	15	9	4	2	23:14	31
2	Maldonado	15	9	2	4	24:16	29
3	Albion	15	8	4	3	26:16	28
4	Penarol	15	8	3	4	23:16	27
5	Central Esp.	15	7	3	5	23:22	24
6	Montevideo City	15	6	5	4	22:16	23
7	Club Nacional	15	7	1	7	26:21	22
8	Defensor Sp.	15	5	6	4	13:11	21
9	Liverpool M.	15	5	5	5	20:18	20
10	Wanderers	15	6	2	7	16:21	20
11	Danubio	15	4	6	5	17:21	18
12	Cerro Largo	15	5	2	8	16:19	17
13	Boston River	15	5	2	8	14:20	17
14	Juventud	15	4	3	8	17:22	15
15	Progreso	15	2	4	9	12:23	10
16	CA Cerro	15	2	4	9	8:24	10