Sport Picks

Stadium Background

CA Cerro vs Maldonado

Uruguay Uruguay

Liga AUF Uruguaya Estádio Parque Alfredo Víctor Viera, Montevideo
Our Tip

Match Events

50'
Tabo C.
57'
Espindola M.
61'
Sub
Suarez D. In: Arguello M.
Out: Suarez D.

AI Match Summary

The Liga AUF Uruguaya game between CA Cerro and Maldonado finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Maldonado.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
CA Cerro
30%
Draws
47%
Maldonado
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Maldonado

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Maldonado carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Maldonado a 47% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
CA Cerro Clean Sheet 22%
Maldonado Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric CA Cerro Maldonado
Matches Played 29 33
Wins 8 18
Draws 6 9
Losses 15 6
Goals Scored 0.69 1.55
Goals Conceded 1.48 0.85
Expected Goals (xG) 0.81 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 2, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
CA Cerro vs Maldonado
0:1
Nov 8, 2024 Liga AUF Uruguaya
CA Cerro vs Maldonado
0:0
May 5, 2024 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Maldonado vs CA Cerro
3:0
Sep 3, 2023 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Maldonado vs CA Cerro
2:1
Jul 17, 2023 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Maldonado vs CA Cerro
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

CA Cerro Compare

Avg xG / game 0.62
Avg xA / game 0.41

Maldonado Compare

Top Goalscorer Fuica N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

CA Cerro 10 / 100
Maldonado 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
CA Cerro Maldonado

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Maldonado Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

CA Cerro scored in 62% of their last 29 games.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

CA Cerro went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Maldonado's defensive record shows goals conceded in 55% of 33 matches.

Scoring Trends

CA Cerro VS Maldonado
1 Goals Scored 1
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.63
63% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 13%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

CA Cerro

(Home)
10 Sept
CA Cerro
0 : 2
Cerrito
06 Sept
CA Cerro
1 : 0
Racing Montevideo
01 Sept
Wanderers
1 : 1
CA Cerro
29 Aug
Boston River
1 : 1
CA Cerro
21 Aug
Liverpool M.
4 : 0
CA Cerro
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Maldonado

(Away)
09 Sept
Maldonado
4 : 1
Wanderers
05 Sept
Maldonado
2 : 0
Wanderers
02 Sept
Cerrito
0 : 2
Maldonado
29 Aug
Juventud
2 : 0
Maldonado
22 Aug
Maldonado
0 : 0
Penarol
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Racing Montevideo 15 9 4 2 23:14 31
2 Maldonado 15 9 2 4 24:16 29
3 Albion 15 8 4 3 26:16 28
4 Penarol 15 8 3 4 23:16 27
5 Central Esp. 15 7 3 5 23:22 24
6 Montevideo City 15 6 5 4 22:16 23
7 Club Nacional 15 7 1 7 26:21 22
8 Defensor Sp. 15 5 6 4 13:11 21
9 Liverpool M. 15 5 5 5 20:18 20
10 Wanderers 15 6 2 7 16:21 20
11 Danubio 15 4 6 5 17:21 18
12 Cerro Largo 15 5 2 8 16:19 17
13 Boston River 15 5 2 8 14:20 17
14 Juventud 15 4 3 8 17:22 15
15 Progreso 15 2 4 9 12:23 10
16 CA Cerro 15 2 4 9 8:24 10
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs)