Sport Picks

Stadium Background

CA Cerro vs Maldonado

Uruguay Uruguay

Liga AUF Uruguaya Estádio Parque Alfredo Víctor Viera, Montevideo
Our Tip

Match Events

50'
Tabo C.
57'
Espindola M.
61'
Sub
Suarez D. In: Arguello M.
Out: Suarez D.

AI Match Summary

The Liga AUF Uruguaya game between CA Cerro and Maldonado finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Maldonado.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
CA Cerro
39%
Draws
30%
Maldonado
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Maldonado carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
CA Cerro Clean Sheet 10%
Maldonado Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric CA Cerro Maldonado
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 9 15
Draws 6 7
Losses 14 7
Goals Scored 0.63 2
Goals Conceded 2 1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.00 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 2, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
CA Cerro vs Maldonado
0:1
Nov 8, 2024 Liga AUF Uruguaya
CA Cerro vs Maldonado
0:0
May 5, 2024 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Maldonado vs CA Cerro
3:0
Sep 3, 2023 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Maldonado vs CA Cerro
2:1
Jul 17, 2023 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Maldonado vs CA Cerro
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

CA Cerro Compare

Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

Maldonado Compare

Top Goalscorer Fuica N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

CA Cerro 30 / 100
Maldonado 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
CA Cerro Maldonado

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MAL Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Maldonado let in goals in 62% of their last 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

CA Cerro went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

CA Cerro's goal record stands at 59% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Scoring Trends

CA Cerro VS Maldonado
0.63 Goals Scored 2
2 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

CA Cerro

(Home)
26 Jul
CA Cerro
1 : 0
Racing Montevideo
12 Jul
Liverpool M.
1 : 2
CA Cerro
07 Jun
CA Cerro
0 : 1
Penarol
29 May
Cerro Largo
2 : 0
CA Cerro
24 May
CA Cerro
1 : 0
Central Esp.
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Maldonado

(Away)
18 Jul
Progreso
1 : 0
Maldonado
10 Jul
Maldonado
1 : 1
Albion
06 Jun
Montevideo City
2 : 4
Maldonado
31 May
Maldonado
3 : 0
Club Nacional
24 May
Wanderers
1 : 1
Maldonado
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Racing Montevideo1594223:1431
2Maldonado1592424:1629
3Albion1584326:1628
4Penarol1583423:1627
5Central Esp.1573523:2224
6Montevideo City1565422:1623
7Club Nacional1571726:2122
8Defensor Sp.1556413:1121
9Liverpool M.1555520:1820
10Wanderers1562716:2120
11Danubio1546517:2118
12Cerro Largo1552816:1917
13Boston River1552814:2017
14Juventud1543817:2215
15Progreso1524912:2310
16CA Cerro152498:2410
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs)