Sport Picks

Stadium Background

CA Metropolitano vs Jaragua-SC

Brazil Brazil

Catarinense 2
Our Tip

Match Events

12' Event
Nunes J.
22' Event
Rodrigo Gaia
25' Event
Roney

AI Match Summary

CA Metropolitano in this Catarinense 2 matchup, with the score ending 6-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored CA Metropolitano.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
CA Metropolitano
6%
Draws
4%
Jaragua-SC
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: CA Metropolitano

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • CA Metropolitano have won more games recently than Jaragua-SC.
  • CA Metropolitano are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.6%
CA Metropolitano Clean Sheet 20%
Jaragua-SC Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric CA Metropolitano Jaragua-SC
Matches Played 31 28
Wins 16 3
Draws 8 4
Losses 7 21
Goals Scored 2.25 0.25
Goals Conceded 1.63 4.25
Expected Goals (xG) 2.25 0.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 4.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 18, 2026 Catarinense 2
CA Metropolitano vs Jaragua-SC
6:1
May 27, 2026 Catarinense 2
Jaragua-SC vs CA Metropolitano
0:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

CA Metropolitano Compare

Top Goalscorer Rodrigo Gaia
1 Goals
Assists Leader Roney
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.73
Avg xA / game 1.13

Jaragua-SC Compare

Top Goalscorer Nunes J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.23
Avg xA / game 0.14

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

CA Metropolitano 85 / 100
Jaragua-SC 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
CA Metropolitano Jaragua-SC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MET Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 5.50 goals when they meet.

Away concern: Jaragua-SC has suffered 5 losses in 5 recent matches.

CA Metropolitano scored in 68% of their last 31 games.

Defensive concern: Jaragua-SC conceded in 64% of 28 recent games.

Scoring Trends

CA Metropolitano VS Jaragua-SC
2.25 Goals Scored 0.25
1.63 Goals Conceded 4.25
88% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 63%
63% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

CA Metropolitano

(Home)
25 Jul
CA Metropolitano
3 : 0
Fluminense-SC
22 Jul
Gremio Juventus
0 : 2
CA Metropolitano
18 Jul
CA Metropolitano
6 : 1
Jaragua-SC
15 Jul
Blumenau
4 : 1
CA Metropolitano
12 Jul
Tubarao
2 : 3
CA Metropolitano
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Jaragua-SC

(Away)
25 Jul
Jaragua-SC
0 : 3
Blumenau
22 Jul
Guarani de Palhoca
7 : 0
Jaragua-SC
18 Jul
CA Metropolitano
6 : 1
Jaragua-SC
15 Jul
Jaragua-SC
0 : 2
Nacao
12 Jul
Caravaggio
9 : 0
Jaragua-SC
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Hercilio Luz18133235:1042
2CA Metropolitano18122436:1838
3Caravaggio18105347:2035
4Blumenau1894535:1531
5Tubarao1865723:2123
6Guarani de Palhoca1865724:2423
7Nacao1856719:2621
8Fluminense-SC1863916:2521
9Gremio Juventus18521117:2617
10Jaragua-SC1801176:731
Promotion - Catarinense 2027 (Main)
Relegation - Catarinense 3 2027 (Main)