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CA Metropolitano vs Guarani de Palhoca

Brazil Brazil

Catarinense 2
Our Tip

Match Events

34' Event
Ruan Marvyn
40' Event
Cristiano
41' Event
Yan

AI Match Summary

The Catarinense 2 game between CA Metropolitano and Guarani de Palhoca finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward CA Metropolitano.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
CA Metropolitano
20%
Draws
46%
Guarani de Palhoca
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Guarani de Palhoca

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and CA Metropolitano come out ahead of Guarani de Palhoca on wins alone.
  • Guarani de Palhoca are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
CA Metropolitano Clean Sheet 14%
Guarani de Palhoca Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric CA Metropolitano Guarani de Palhoca
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 16 11
Draws 7 8
Losses 8 11
Goals Scored 1.52 1.47
Goals Conceded 1 1.23
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 14, 2026 Catarinense 2
CA Metropolitano vs Guarani de Palhoca
3:1
Apr 25, 2026 Catarinense 2
Guarani de Palhoca vs CA Metropolitano
0:1
Jun 22, 2024 Catarinense 2
Guarani de Palhoca vs CA Metropolitano
0:0
Aug 6, 2023 Catarinense 2
Guarani de Palhoca vs CA Metropolitano
3:1
Jul 30, 2023 Catarinense 2
CA Metropolitano vs Guarani de Palhoca
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

CA Metropolitano Compare

Top Goalscorer Ruan Marvyn
1 Goals
Assists Leader Cristiano
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Guarani de Palhoca Compare

Top Goalscorer Yan
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

CA Metropolitano 19 / 100
Guarani de Palhoca 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
CA Metropolitano Guarani de Palhoca

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Guarani de Palhoca Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

CA Metropolitano's goal record stands at 68% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Guarani de Palhoca let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

CA Metropolitano has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

CA Metropolitano VS Guarani de Palhoca
2.13 Goals Scored 1.88
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.88
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

CA Metropolitano

(Home)
27 Sept
CA Metropolitano
0 : 1
Figueirense
19 Sept
Blumenau
0 : 1
CA Metropolitano
07 Sept
CA Metropolitano
2 : 5
Marcilio Dias
30 Aug
Hercilio Luz
4 : 2
CA Metropolitano
25 Jul
CA Metropolitano
3 : 0
Fluminense-SC
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Guarani de Palhoca

(Away)
25 Jul
Tubarao
0 : 2
Guarani de Palhoca
22 Jul
Guarani de Palhoca
7 : 0
Jaragua-SC
19 Jul
Guarani de Palhoca
1 : 1
Blumenau
15 Jul
Fluminense-SC
1 : 1
Guarani de Palhoca
12 Jul
Gremio Juventus
1 : 0
Guarani de Palhoca
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Hercilio Luz 18 13 3 2 35:10 42
2 CA Metropolitano 18 12 2 4 36:18 38
3 Caravaggio 18 10 5 3 47:20 35
4 Blumenau 18 9 4 5 35:15 31
5 Tubarao 18 6 5 7 23:21 23
6 Guarani de Palhoca 18 6 5 7 24:24 23
7 Nacao 18 5 6 7 19:26 21
8 Fluminense-SC 18 6 3 9 16:25 21
9 Gremio Juventus 18 5 2 11 17:26 17
10 Jaragua-SC 18 0 1 17 6:73 1
Promotion - Catarinense 2027 (Main)
Relegation - Catarinense 3 2027 (Main)