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CA Metropolitano vs Guarani de Palhoca

Brazil Brazil

Catarinense 2
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

CA Metropolitano play Guarani de Palhoca in the Catarinense 2. It looks like a close match. Recently, CA Metropolitano averaged 1.21 goals scored and 0.82 conceded. Guarani de Palhoca averaged 1.21 goals scored and 1.32 conceded. In past meetings, CA Metropolitano won 2, Guarani de Palhoca won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on Jun 14, 2026 ended 3:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.69 for CA Metropolitano and 1.06 for Guarani de Palhoca. This points to a CA Metropolitano double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
CA Metropolitano
30%
Draws
27%
Guarani de Palhoca
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: CA Metropolitano

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • CA Metropolitano picked up more points recently compared to Guarani de Palhoca.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.69 vs 1.06 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 56%
Over 2.5 Goals 36%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 41%
CA Metropolitano Clean Sheet 22%
Guarani de Palhoca Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 50%
Second Half Goal 53%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric CA Metropolitano Guarani de Palhoca
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 12 9
Draws 9 7
Losses 7 12
Goals Scored 1.21 1.21
Goals Conceded 0.82 1.32
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 14, 2026 Catarinense 2
CA Metropolitano vs Guarani de Palhoca
3:1
Apr 25, 2026 Catarinense 2
Guarani de Palhoca vs CA Metropolitano
0:1
Jun 22, 2024 Catarinense 2
Guarani de Palhoca vs CA Metropolitano
0:0
Aug 6, 2023 Catarinense 2
Guarani de Palhoca vs CA Metropolitano
3:1
Jul 30, 2023 Catarinense 2
CA Metropolitano vs Guarani de Palhoca
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

CA Metropolitano Compare

Top Goalscorer Ruan Marvyn
1 Goals
Assists Leader Cristiano
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Guarani de Palhoca Compare

Top Goalscorer Yan
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

CA Metropolitano 43 / 100
Guarani de Palhoca 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
CA Metropolitano Guarani de Palhoca

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: CA Metropolitano or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +23%
2.86
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +19.9%
3.33
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

CA Metropolitano attacking → ← attacking Guarani de Palhoca

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

CA Metropolitano scored in 61% of their last 28 games.

Guarani de Palhoca let in goals in 75% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

CA Metropolitano went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Guarani de Palhoca lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

45 Points in last 5 34
1.88 Goals expected (xG) 1.38
0.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.50

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Hercilio Luz1392228:929
2CA Metropolitano1382321:1126
3Blumenau1373327:924
4Caravaggio1373331:1624
5Tubarao1365219:1023
6Guarani de Palhoca1343613:2115
7Fluminense-SC1342711:1614
8Nacao1335511:2014
9Gremio Juventus1332812:2011
10Jaragua-SC1301125:461