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CA Metropolitano vs Nacao - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Catarinense 2
Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Ariel
21' Event
Bicca M.
34' Event
Jeronimo

AI Match Summary

CA Metropolitano in this Catarinense 2 matchup, with the score ending 5-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored CA Metropolitano.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
CA Metropolitano
20%
Draws
20%
Nacao
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: CA Metropolitano

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

60% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to CA Metropolitano lately — more wins on the board than Nacao.
  • 60% — that's where the model lands on CA Metropolitano taking it.
  • Regular Catarinense 2 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
CA Metropolitano Clean Sheet 68%
Nacao Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric CA Metropolitano Nacao
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 15 5
Draws 6 10
Losses 8 13
Goals Scored 1.59 0.96
Goals Conceded 1.07 1.68
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 1, 2026 Catarinense 2
Nacao vs CA Metropolitano
0:0
May 6, 2026 Catarinense 2
CA Metropolitano vs Nacao
5:2
Jun 15, 2025 Catarinense 2
CA Metropolitano vs Nacao
4:2
Jul 23, 2023 Catarinense 2
Nacao vs CA Metropolitano
3:2
Jun 4, 2022 Catarinense 2
CA Metropolitano vs Nacao
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

CA Metropolitano Compare

Top Goalscorer Jeronimo
2 Goals
Assists Leader Ariel
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Nacao Compare

Top Goalscorer Bicca M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Miranda G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

CA Metropolitano 68 / 100
Nacao 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
CA Metropolitano Nacao

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CA Metropolitano Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.60 goals as a typical output.

CA Metropolitano found the back of the net in 69% of recent matches (29 games).

Nacao's defensive record shows goals conceded in 68% of 28 matches.

Nacao's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

CA Metropolitano VS Nacao
2.13 Goals Scored 1.25
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

CA Metropolitano

(Home)
27 Sept
CA Metropolitano
0 : 1
Figueirense
19 Sept
Blumenau
0 : 1
CA Metropolitano
07 Sept
CA Metropolitano
2 : 5
Marcilio Dias
30 Aug
Hercilio Luz
4 : 2
CA Metropolitano
25 Jul
CA Metropolitano
3 : 0
Fluminense-SC
Page 1 of 6

Nacao

(Away)
26 Sept
Hercilio Luz
2 : 1
Nacao
23 Sept
Barra FC (Santa Catarina)
3 : 3
Nacao
19 Sept
Nacao
0 : 4
Joinville
12 Sept
Figueirense
1 : 0
Nacao
06 Sept
Nacao
2 : 2
Santa Catarina
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Hercilio Luz 18 13 3 2 35:10 42
2 CA Metropolitano 18 12 2 4 36:18 38
3 Caravaggio 18 10 5 3 47:20 35
4 Blumenau 18 9 4 5 35:15 31
5 Tubarao 18 6 5 7 23:21 23
6 Guarani de Palhoca 18 6 5 7 24:24 23
7 Nacao 18 5 6 7 19:26 21
8 Fluminense-SC 18 6 3 9 16:25 21
9 Gremio Juventus 18 5 2 11 17:26 17
10 Jaragua-SC 18 0 1 17 6:73 1
Promotion - Catarinense 2027 (Main)
Relegation - Catarinense 3 2027 (Main)