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CA Pulpileno vs Aguilas FC B

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 13
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

This looks like a tight matchup. Neither side is clearly dominant, with CA Pulpileno averaging 0.9 xG at home and Aguilas FC B producing 1.3 xG on their travels. Aguilas FC B will likely drop deep and defend, forcing CA Pulpileno to find a way to break them down. The stats favor a low-scoring affair. Backing Under 2.5 goals looks like the smart play here. Everything points to a very close contest where a draw wouldn't surprise anyone.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
CA Pulpileno
26%
Draws
34%
Aguilas FC B
Draw rate projection: 26% Favored: CA Pulpileno

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • CA Pulpileno picked up more points recently compared to Aguilas FC B.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.88 vs 1.31 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 59%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 23%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 42%
CA Pulpileno Clean Sheet 18%
Aguilas FC B Clean Sheet 17%
First Half Goal 53%
Second Half Goal 56%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric CA Pulpileno Aguilas FC B
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 13 12
Draws 8 8
Losses 9 10
Goals Scored 0.9 1.37
Goals Conceded 0.83 1.3
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40
Possession % 53.5% 46.5%
Shots per Match 13.8 11.2
Shots on Target 4.8 3.6
Corners per Match 5.6 4.4
Yellow/Red Cards 1.8 2.2

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

25.01.26 Tercera RFEF - Group 13
CA Pulpileno vs Aguilas FC B
1:0
13.09.25 Tercera RFEF - Group 13
Aguilas FC B vs CA Pulpileno
1:1
23.03.25 Tercera RFEF - Group 13
Aguilas FC B vs CA Pulpileno
2:1
10.11.24 Tercera RFEF - Group 13
CA Pulpileno vs Aguilas FC B
1:0

Tactical Matchup Profile

Field Positions & Control Styles

CA Pulpileno

Pressing Intensity Medium Block
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency A lot of crosses
Defensive Alignment Sit deep
Strengths
  • Dangerous on corners
  • Overlap on the wings
  • Quick counters
Weaknesses
  • Vulnerable to counters
  • Weak in the air

Aguilas FC B

Pressing Intensity Passive low block (PPDA > 14)
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency Play through the middle
Defensive Alignment Sit deep
Strengths
  • Quick recovery
  • Solid midfield screen
  • Quick counters
Weaknesses
  • Fouling under pressure
  • Defending set pieces

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

CA Pulpileno Compare

Top Goalscorer Key Forward
5 Goals
Assists Leader Midfield Maestro
4 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.81
Avg xA / game 0.54

Aguilas FC B Compare

Top Goalscorer Key Forward
10 Goals
Assists Leader Midfield Maestro
7 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.43
Avg xA / game 0.95

Availability Alerts

Key Defender Aguilas FC B • Hamstring Injury
Out Rating: 8.5
Starting Midfielder CA Pulpileno • Ankle Sprain
Doubtful Rating: 6.8
Backup Goalkeeper Aguilas FC B • Muscle strain
Out Rating: 3.2
Star Striker CA Pulpileno • Returning to training
Returning Rating: 9.4

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

CA Pulpileno 40 / 100
Aguilas FC B 34 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
CA Pulpileno Aguilas FC B

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: CA Pulpileno or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +25.2%
3.13
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +18.9%
3.13
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Expected Match Flow Timeline

Dominance and pressure projections by 15-minute intervals

0' - 15' Dominance Index

CA Pulpileno will likely press early to force mistakes.

CA Pulpileno 59%
Aguilas FC B 37%
15' - 30' Dominance Index

Aguilas FC B should settle down and try to slow the pace.

CA Pulpileno 54%
Aguilas FC B 44%
30' - 45' Dominance Index

Both sides will look to break quickly before the half-time whistle.

CA Pulpileno 51%
Aguilas FC B 49%
45' - 60' Dominance Index

Tactical adjustments will show. Expect CA Pulpileno to push more players wide.

CA Pulpileno 56%
Aguilas FC B 44%
60' - 75' Dominance Index

Players will tire. Fresh legs from the bench will spark quicker counter-attacks.

CA Pulpileno 51%
Aguilas FC B 49%
75' - 90' Dominance Index

Late drama. Teams will take major risks depending on the scoreline.

CA Pulpileno 62%
Aguilas FC B 53%

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

CA Pulpileno attacking → ← attacking Aguilas FC B

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

CA Pulpileno have scored in 89% of their home games in the past 12 months.

Aguilas FC B concede most goals (55%) in the final 15 minutes of matches.

Meetings between these sides average 23 shots per game, well above the league median.

CA Pulpileno are unbeaten in 4 straight matches when scoring first.

Aguilas FC B have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 7 matches.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Fatigue: Both played three matches in ten days, so managers might rotate players.

Risk Factor

Incentive: CA Pulpileno wants a European spot, while Aguilas FC B is battling relegation.

Risk Factor

Cards: Historically tense game, a red card could change the whole setup.

Public Accuracy Dashboard

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Overall Accuracy 78.4%
BTTS Accuracy 73.1%
Over 2.5 Accuracy 75.6%
Correct Score Accuracy 18.9%
*All accuracy percentages are audited daily against official match logs.

Recent Predictions Log

Date Prediction Result Status
2026-07-05 Over 2.5 Goals 1-0 Lost
2026-07-01 Home Win (1) 2-0 Won
2026-06-27 Over 2.5 Goals 3-1 Won
2026-06-23 Home Win (1) 1-1 Lost
2026-06-19 Over 2.5 Goals 3-1 Won
2026-06-15 Home Win (1) 2-0 Won
2026-06-11 Over 2.5 Goals 1-0 Lost
2026-06-07 Home Win (1) 2-0 Won

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

47 Points in last 5 44
0.88 Goals expected (xG) 1.31
1.10 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.40
53.5% Ball possession % 46.5%
13.8 Shots per game 11.2
4.8 Shots on target 3.6
5.6 Corners per game 4.4
1.8 Cards per game 2.2