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CA Vila Rica vs ESMAC

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Paraense B1 2024
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AI Match Summary

The Paraense B1 2024 game between CA Vila Rica and ESMAC finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward ESMAC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
CA Vila Rica
30%
Draws
47%
ESMAC
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: ESMAC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and ESMAC come out ahead of CA Vila Rica on wins alone.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Regular Paraense B1 2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
CA Vila Rica Clean Sheet 14%
ESMAC Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric CA Vila Rica ESMAC
Matches Played 12 14
Wins 0 2
Draws 3 5
Losses 9 7
Goals Scored 0.42 0.86
Goals Conceded 2.67 2.07
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 5, 2024 Paraense A2
ESMAC vs CA Vila Rica
1:1
Sep 15, 2024 Paraense A2
CA Vila Rica vs ESMAC
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

CA Vila Rica 31 / 100
ESMAC 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
CA Vila Rica ESMAC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ESMAC Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

ESMAC's defensive record shows goals conceded in 93% of 14 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.50 goals per match.

ESMAC lost 3 of their last 5 games.

CA Vila Rica found the back of the net in 33% of recent matches (12 games).

Scoring Trends

CA Vila Rica VS ESMAC
0.5 Goals Scored 0.63
2.63 Goals Conceded 1.63
88% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

CA Vila Rica

(Home)
23 Sept
Sport Belem
3 : 0
CA Vila Rica
20 Sept
CA Vila Rica
2 : 2
Belenense
13 Sept
CA Vila Rica
0 : 1
Sport Belem
11 Sept
Belenense
8 : 0
CA Vila Rica
18 Oct
Venus
3 : 0
CA Vila Rica
Page 1 of 3

ESMAC

(Away)
23 Sept
ESMAC
0 : 5
Pedreira
16 Sept
Venus
5 : 2
ESMAC
13 Sept
Pedreira
3 : 1
ESMAC
05 Sept
ESMAC
1 : 1
Venus
23 Jun
Uniao Paraense
1 : 1
ESMAC
Page 1 of 3

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Paragominas 6 3 2 1 11:4 11
2 Capitao Poco 6 3 1 2 6:5 10
3 Pinheirense 6 2 3 1 6:6 9
4 Santos PA 6 0 2 4 1:9 2
Promotion - Paraense B1 2024 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Izabelense 6 3 3 0 9:2 12
2 Amazonia IFC 6 2 2 2 5:4 8
3 Fonte Nova 6 1 3 2 5:10 6
4 Uniao Paraense 6 0 4 2 3:6 4
Promotion - Paraense B1 2024 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sao Raimundo PA 4 3 1 0 10:1 10
2 ESMAC 4 1 2 1 4:6 5
3 CA Vila Rica 4 0 1 3 2:9 1
Promotion - Paraense B1 2024 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Independente 4 2 0 2 5:6 6
2 Carajas 4 1 2 1 7:6 5
3 Itupiranga 4 1 2 1 5:5 5
Promotion - Paraense B1 2024 (Play Offs)