Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Cadiz vs Dep. A Coruna

Spain Spain

LaLiga2 2025/2026 JP Financial Estadio
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Dep. A Coruna head into this one in great shape. With an average of 1.8 xG per match, they pose a serious threat even on the road. Dep. A Coruna will likely drop deep and defend, forcing Cadiz to find a way to break them down. A single goal could decide this. The Under 3.5 goals market offers solid value. The numbers suggest backing Dep. A Coruna has the better value, giving them a 61% chance.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

21%
Cadiz
18%
Draws
61%
Dep. A Coruna
Draw rate projection: 18% Favored: Dep. A Coruna

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence
  • Cadiz picked up more points recently compared to Dep. A Coruna.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.69 vs 1.75 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 77%
Over 2.5 Goals 52%
Over 3.5 Goals 31%
Over 4.5 Goals 16%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 54%
Cadiz Clean Sheet 12%
Dep. A Coruna Clean Sheet 20%
First Half Goal 69%
Second Half Goal 73%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Cadiz Dep. A Coruna
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 6 16
Draws 4 6
Losses 20 8
Goals Scored 1.07 1.3
Goals Conceded 1.83 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 0.69 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40
Possession % 53.5% 46.5%
Shots per Match 13.8 11.2
Shots on Target 4.8 3.6
Corners per Match 5.6 4.4
Yellow/Red Cards 1.8 2.2

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

08.05.26 LaLiga2
Cadiz vs Dep. A Coruna
0:1
04.01.26 LaLiga2
Dep. A Coruna vs Cadiz
2:2
06.04.25 LaLiga2
Dep. A Coruna vs Cadiz
1:0
30.11.24 LaLiga2
Cadiz vs Dep. A Coruna
2:4
19.01.20 LaLiga2
Dep. A Coruna vs Cadiz
1:0

Tactical Matchup Profile

Field Positions & Control Styles

Cadiz

Pressing Intensity Medium Block
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency A lot of crosses
Defensive Alignment Sit deep
Strengths
  • Dangerous on corners
  • Overlap on the wings
  • Quick counters
Weaknesses
  • Vulnerable to counters
  • Weak in the air

Dep. A Coruna

Pressing Intensity Passive low block (PPDA > 14)
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency Play through the middle
Defensive Alignment Sit deep
Strengths
  • Quick recovery
  • Solid midfield screen
  • Quick counters
Weaknesses
  • Fouling under pressure
  • Defending set pieces

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Cadiz Compare

Top Goalscorer Key Forward
4 Goals
Assists Leader Midfield Maestro
3 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.64
Avg xA / game 0.42

Dep. A Coruna Compare

Top Goalscorer Key Forward
13 Goals
Assists Leader Midfield Maestro
10 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.91
Avg xA / game 1.27

Availability Alerts

Key Defender Dep. A Coruna • Hamstring Injury
Out Rating: 8.5
Starting Midfielder Cadiz • Ankle Sprain
Doubtful Rating: 6.8
Backup Goalkeeper Dep. A Coruna • Muscle strain
Out Rating: 3.2
Star Striker Cadiz • Returning to training
Returning Rating: 9.4

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cadiz 21 / 100
Dep. A Coruna 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Cadiz Dep. A Coruna

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Dep. A Coruna Win (2)
Secondary Pick Dep. A Coruna & Over 2.5
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +61.5%
7.69
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.8%
2.17
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Expected Match Flow Timeline

Dominance and pressure projections by 15-minute intervals

0' - 15' Dominance Index

Cadiz will likely press early to force mistakes.

Cadiz 59%
Dep. A Coruna 37%
15' - 30' Dominance Index

Dep. A Coruna should settle down and try to slow the pace.

Cadiz 54%
Dep. A Coruna 44%
30' - 45' Dominance Index

Both sides will look to break quickly before the half-time whistle.

Cadiz 51%
Dep. A Coruna 49%
45' - 60' Dominance Index

Tactical adjustments will show. Expect Cadiz to push more players wide.

Cadiz 56%
Dep. A Coruna 44%
60' - 75' Dominance Index

Players will tire. Fresh legs from the bench will spark quicker counter-attacks.

Cadiz 51%
Dep. A Coruna 49%
75' - 90' Dominance Index

Late drama. Teams will take major risks depending on the scoreline.

Cadiz 62%
Dep. A Coruna 53%

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Cadiz attacking → ← attacking Dep. A Coruna

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Cadiz have scored in 87% of their home games in the past 12 months.

Dep. A Coruna concede most goals (47%) in the final 15 minutes of matches.

Meetings between these sides average 21 shots per game, well above the league median.

Cadiz are unbeaten in 5 straight matches when scoring first.

Dep. A Coruna have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 6 matches.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Low
Risk Factor

Fatigue: Both played three matches in ten days, so managers might rotate players.

Risk Factor

Incentive: Cadiz wants a European spot, while Dep. A Coruna is battling relegation.

Risk Factor

Cards: Historically tense game, a red card could change the whole setup.

Public Accuracy Dashboard

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Overall Accuracy 78.4%
BTTS Accuracy 73.1%
Over 2.5 Accuracy 75.6%
Correct Score Accuracy 18.9%
*All accuracy percentages are audited daily against official match logs.

Recent Predictions Log

Date Prediction Result Status
2026-07-05 Over 2.5 Goals 1-0 Lost
2026-07-01 Home Win (1) 2-0 Won
2026-06-27 Over 2.5 Goals 3-1 Won
2026-06-23 Home Win (1) 1-1 Lost
2026-06-19 Over 2.5 Goals 3-1 Won
2026-06-15 Home Win (1) 2-0 Won
2026-06-11 Over 2.5 Goals 1-0 Lost
2026-06-07 Home Win (1) 2-0 Won

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

22 Points in last 5 54
0.69 Goals expected (xG) 1.75
1.10 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.40
53.5% Ball possession % 46.5%
13.8 Shots per game 11.2
4.8 Shots on target 3.6
5.6 Corners per game 4.4
1.8 Cards per game 2.2