Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Caen vs Bastia - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

France France

Ligue 3 Stade Michel d'Ornano, Caen
Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Rodrigues C.
Assist: Tomi F.
27'
Kimboma J.
45'
Bolumbu D.

AI Match Summary

Bastia in this Ligue 3 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Bastia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Caen
20%
Draws
29%
Bastia
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Caen

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Caen have won more games recently than Bastia.
  • Caen are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • Regular Ligue 3 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Caen Clean Sheet 20%
Bastia Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Caen Bastia
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 12 8
Draws 7 12
Losses 10 11
Goals Scored 1.79 1.1
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.23
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 27, 2026 Ligue 3
Caen vs Bastia
0:1
May 10, 2025 Ligue 2
Bastia vs Caen
2:1
Nov 2, 2024 Ligue 2
Caen vs Bastia
2:0
Jan 23, 2024 Ligue 2
Bastia vs Caen
1:2
Dec 2, 2023 Ligue 2
Caen vs Bastia
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Caen Compare

Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Bastia Compare

Top Goalscorer Rodrigues C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Caen 58 / 100
Bastia 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Caen Bastia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Caen Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Caen scored in 86% of their last 29 games.

Bastia has conceded goals in 65% of their last 31 outings.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Caen went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Caen VS Bastia
1.63 Goals Scored 1
1 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Caen

(Home)
03 Oct
Fleury 91
3 : 2
Caen
24 Sept
Caen
3 : 2
Rouen
19 Sept
Concarneau
2 : 0
Caen
12 Sept
Caen
2 : 0
Paris 13 Atletico
05 Sept
Bourg Peronnas
0 : 2
Caen
Page 1 of 6

Bastia

(Away)
01 Oct
Bastia
1 : 1
Orleans
26 Sept
Paris 13 Atletico
1 : 0
Bastia
17 Sept
Bastia
1 : 1
Cannes
12 Sept
Bourg Peronnas
0 : 1
Bastia
05 Sept
Bastia
0 : 3
Amiens SC
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 La Roche Vendee 9 6 3 0 15:8 21
2 Rouen 9 6 2 1 17:5 20
3 Concarneau 9 4 4 1 12:8 16
4 Versailles 9 5 1 3 13:12 16
5 Amiens SC 9 4 3 2 12:3 15
6 Cannes 9 3 6 0 11:4 15
7 Caen 9 5 0 4 17:12 15
8 Le Puy-en-Velay 9 4 1 4 11:9 13
9 Thionville 9 3 3 3 14:14 12
10 Fleury 91 9 3 3 3 15:12 12
11 Paris 13 Atletico 9 3 3 3 7:9 12
12 Bastia 9 3 2 4 7:11 11
13 Quevilly 9 2 4 3 8:12 10
14 Orleans 9 2 3 4 7:11 9
15 Valenciennes 9 2 2 5 9:14 8
16 Aubagne FC 9 2 1 6 6:12 7
17 Bourg Peronnas 9 1 2 6 5:15 5
18 Villefranche 9 1 1 7 7:22 4
Promotion - Ligue 2 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Ligue 2 (Relegation)