Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Caen vs Chateauroux

France France

National 2025/2026 Stade Michel d'Ornano, Caen
Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
Hafid M.
Assist: Labonne R.
46'
Sub
Wade P. In: Jean C.
Out: Wade P.
46'
Kimboma J.

AI Match Summary

The National 2025/2026 game between Caen and Chateauroux finished 2-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
Caen
22%
Draws
18%
Chateauroux
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Caen

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Caen come out ahead of Chateauroux on wins alone.
  • Model gives Caen a 60% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 37.2%
Caen Clean Sheet 68%
Chateauroux Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Caen Chateauroux
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 8 6
Draws 13 8
Losses 9 14
Goals Scored 2.25 1.13
Goals Conceded 1.25 1.88
Expected Goals (xG) 2.25 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 6, 2026 Ligue 3
Caen vs Chateauroux
2:2
Sep 26, 2025 Ligue 3
Chateauroux vs Caen
2:1
Mar 20, 2021 Ligue 2
Chateauroux vs Caen
2:2
Nov 28, 2020 Ligue 2
Caen vs Chateauroux
1:1
Mar 6, 2020 Ligue 2
Chateauroux vs Caen
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Caen Compare

Top Goalscorer Hafid M.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.73
Avg xA / game 1.13

Chateauroux Compare

Top Goalscorer Bouaoune I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Caen 68 / 100
Chateauroux 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Caen Chateauroux

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CAE Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Caen scored in 87% of their last 30 games.

Chateauroux's defensive record shows goals conceded in 82% of 28 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Caen stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Caen VS Chateauroux
2.25 Goals Scored 1.13
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.88
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Caen

(Home)
31 Jul
Caen
1 : 1
Dieppe
25 Jul
Caen
4 : 1
Al Wakra
18 Jul
Caen
4 : 2
Laval
15 Jul
Caen
3 : 4
Paris 13 Atletico
09 Jul
Rennes
1 : 2
Caen
Page 1 of 6

Chateauroux

(Away)
01 Aug
Chateauroux
0 : 1
Bourges
15 May
Valenciennes
2 : 2
Chateauroux
09 May
Chateauroux
2 : 1
Sochaux
30 Apr
Dijon
1 : 2
Chateauroux
24 Apr
Chateauroux
0 : 2
Fleury-Merogis
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Dijon321811352:2565
2Sochaux321610651:2658
3Rouen321413543:2955
4Fleury-Merogis32159847:3054
5Versailles32158946:3453
6Orleans32149942:4251
7Le Puy-en-Velay321211945:3847
8Caen32816839:3440
9Concarneau328141032:3738
10Valenciennes321081435:4437
11Aubagne FC329101338:4637
12Villefranche321071534:4537
13Quevilly32891534:4533
14Paris 13 Atletico327111426:4132
15Bourg Peronnas32871725:4431
16Chateauroux326131335:4930
17Stade Briochin325121535:5027
Promotion - Ligue 2 (Main)
Promotion - Ligue 2 2025/2026 (Relegation)