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Caen vs La Roche Vendee - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

France France

Ligue 3 Stade Michel d'Ornano, Caen
Thu, Oct 15, 2026
VS
06:45 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Caen host La Roche Vendee in the Ligue 3. Little to choose between these two on current form. Recent numbers: Caen at 1.79 goals for, 1.38 against; La Roche Vendee at 1.86 for, 0.82 against. No recent head-to-head history to lean on here — form is the better guide. xG projections (1.25 - 1.25) back La Roche Vendee to edge this. AI prediction: Draw (X). Expect a competitive, tight affair.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Caen
20%
Draws
44%
La Roche Vendee
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: La Roche Vendee

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Caen haven't matched La Roche Vendee's recent run of results.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Caen Clean Sheet 19%
La Roche Vendee Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Caen La Roche Vendee
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 12 18
Draws 7 9
Losses 10 1
Goals Scored 1.79 1.86
Goals Conceded 1.38 0.82
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Caen 32 / 100
La Roche Vendee 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Caen La Roche Vendee

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Caen scored in 86% of their last 29 outings.

La Roche Vendee has conceded goals in 61% of their last 28 outings.

Caen went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Caen VS La Roche Vendee
1.63 Goals Scored 1.5
1 Goals Conceded 0.88
75% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Caen

(Home)
03 Oct
Fleury 91
3 : 2
Caen
24 Sept
Caen
3 : 2
Rouen
19 Sept
Concarneau
2 : 0
Caen
12 Sept
Caen
2 : 0
Paris 13 Atletico
05 Sept
Bourg Peronnas
0 : 2
Caen
Page 1 of 6

La Roche Vendee

(Away)
03 Oct
La Roche Vendee
3 : 1
Aubagne FC
26 Sept
Thionville
1 : 2
La Roche Vendee
19 Sept
La Roche Vendee
3 : 2
Valenciennes
12 Sept
Villefranche
0 : 0
La Roche Vendee
05 Sept
La Roche Vendee
1 : 1
Quevilly
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 La Roche Vendee 9 6 3 0 15:8 21
2 Rouen 9 6 2 1 17:5 20
3 Concarneau 9 4 4 1 12:8 16
4 Versailles 9 5 1 3 13:12 16
5 Amiens SC 9 4 3 2 12:3 15
6 Cannes 9 3 6 0 11:4 15
7 Caen 9 5 0 4 17:12 15
8 Le Puy-en-Velay 9 4 1 4 11:9 13
9 Thionville 9 3 3 3 14:14 12
10 Fleury 91 9 3 3 3 15:12 12
11 Paris 13 Atletico 9 3 3 3 7:9 12
12 Bastia 9 3 2 4 7:11 11
13 Quevilly 9 2 4 3 8:12 10
14 Orleans 9 2 3 4 7:11 9
15 Valenciennes 9 2 2 5 9:14 8
16 Aubagne FC 9 2 1 6 6:12 7
17 Bourg Peronnas 9 1 2 6 5:15 5
18 Villefranche 9 1 1 7 7:22 4
Promotion - Ligue 2 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Ligue 2 (Relegation)