Sport Picks

France

National 2025/2026 Stade Michel d'Ornano

Orleans

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Caen play Orleans in the National 2025/2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Caen averaged 1.21 goals scored and 1.14 conceded. Orleans averaged 1.55 goals scored and 1.24 conceded. In past meetings, Caen won 2, Orleans won 1, and they drew 2. Their last match on Mar 21, 2026 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.13 for Caen and 0.81 for Orleans. This points to a Orleans double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%

Caen

35%

Draws

39%

Orleans

Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Orleans

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

75% / High Confidence

Caen picked up more points recently compared to Orleans.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.13 vs 0.81 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 79%

Over 2.5 Goals 52%

Over 3.5 Goals 31%

Over 4.5 Goals 16%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 59%

Caen Clean Sheet 26%

Orleans Clean Sheet 13%

First Half Goal 71%

Second Half Goal 75%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Caen	Orleans
Matches Played	29	29
Wins	6	14
Draws	15	8
Losses	8	7
Goals Scored	1.21	1.55
Goals Conceded	1.14	1.24
Expected Goals (xG)	1.38	1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.50	0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 21, 2026 Ligue 3

Caen vs Orleans

Possession: 43% - 40% Cards: 2 - 3

1:1

Oct 17, 2025 Ligue 3

Orleans vs Caen

Possession: 41% - 59% Cards: 3 - 2

2:1

Jul 14, 2021 Club Friendly

Orleans vs Caen

Possession: 49% - 55% Cards: 0 - 1

1:3

Apr 3, 2020 Ligue 2

Orleans vs Caen

Possession: 44% - 52% Cards: 1 - 2

0:0

Nov 1, 2019 Ligue 2

Caen vs Orleans

Possession: 55% - 57% Cards: 1 - 2

2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Caen Compare

Top Goalscorer Botella I.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.06

Avg xA / game 0.69

Orleans Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03

Avg xA / game 0.63

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Caen 29 / 100

Orleans 38 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Caen Orleans

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Orleans or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +44.6%

5.56

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +12.8%

2.17

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Caen attacking → ← attacking Orleans

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Caen scored in 79% of their last 29 games.

Orleans let in goals in 66% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Caen went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Orleans lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

33 Points in last 5 50

1.38 Goals expected (xG) 1.13

0.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.88

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Dijon	32	18	11	3	52:25	65
2	Sochaux	32	16	10	6	51:26	58
3	Rouen	32	14	13	5	43:29	55
4	Fleury-Merogis	32	15	9	8	47:30	54
5	Versailles	32	15	8	9	46:34	53
6	Orleans	32	14	9	9	42:42	51
7	Le Puy-en-Velay	32	12	11	9	45:38	47
8	Caen	32	8	16	8	39:34	40
9	Concarneau	32	8	14	10	32:37	38
10	Valenciennes	32	10	8	14	35:44	37
11	Aubagne FC	32	9	10	13	38:46	37
12	Villefranche	32	10	7	15	34:45	37
13	Quevilly	32	8	9	15	34:45	33
14	Paris 13 Atletico	32	7	11	14	26:41	32
15	Bourg Peronnas	32	8	7	17	25:44	31
16	Chateauroux	32	6	13	13	35:49	30
17	Stade Briochin	32	5	12	15	35:50	27