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Caen vs Villefranche - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

France France

National 2025/2026 Stade Michel d'Ornano, Caen
Our Tip

Match Events

7' Event
Duville-Parsemain A.
Assist: M'Vila Y.
19' Event
Rajot L.
34'
Sub
Assef M. In: Mroivili R.
Out: Assef M.

AI Match Summary

Caen in this National 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 3-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Caen.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

77%
Caen
15%
Draws
8%
Villefranche
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Caen

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

77% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Caen lately — more wins on the board than Villefranche.
  • Win probability leans Caen's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular National 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Caen Clean Sheet 20%
Villefranche Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Caen Villefranche
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 12 8
Draws 8 6
Losses 10 16
Goals Scored 1.77 1.13
Goals Conceded 1.37 1.77
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 24, 2026 Ligue 3
Caen vs Villefranche
3:0
Dec 5, 2025 Ligue 3
Villefranche vs Caen
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Caen Compare

Top Goalscorer Duville-Parsemain A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Rajot L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Villefranche Compare

Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Caen 85 / 100
Villefranche 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Caen Villefranche

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Caen Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Caen found the back of the net in 87% of recent matches (30 games).

Villefranche's defensive record shows goals conceded in 80% of 30 matches.

H2H data points to 2.50 goals as a typical output.

Caen has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Caen VS Villefranche
1.63 Goals Scored 0.88
1 Goals Conceded 2.38
75% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Caen

(Home)
03 Oct
Fleury 91
3 : 2
Caen
24 Sept
Caen
3 : 2
Rouen
19 Sept
Concarneau
2 : 0
Caen
12 Sept
Caen
2 : 0
Paris 13 Atletico
05 Sept
Bourg Peronnas
0 : 2
Caen
Page 1 of 6

Villefranche

(Away)
03 Oct
Amiens SC
3 : 0
Villefranche
26 Sept
Villefranche
1 : 2
Versailles
19 Sept
Le Puy-en-Velay
4 : 1
Villefranche
12 Sept
Villefranche
0 : 0
La Roche Vendee
05 Sept
Fleury 91
6 : 1
Villefranche
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Dijon 32 18 11 3 52:25 65
2 Sochaux 32 16 10 6 51:26 58
3 Rouen 32 14 13 5 43:29 55
4 Fleury 91 32 15 9 8 47:30 54
5 Versailles 32 15 8 9 46:34 53
6 Orleans 32 14 9 9 42:42 51
7 Le Puy-en-Velay 32 12 11 9 45:38 47
8 Caen 32 8 16 8 39:34 40
9 Concarneau 32 8 14 10 32:37 38
10 Valenciennes 32 10 8 14 35:44 37
11 Aubagne FC 32 9 10 13 38:46 37
12 Villefranche 32 10 7 15 34:45 37
13 Quevilly 32 8 9 15 34:45 33
14 Paris 13 Atletico 32 7 11 14 26:41 32
15 Bourg Peronnas 32 8 7 17 25:44 31
16 Chateauroux 32 6 13 13 35:49 30
17 Stade Briochin 32 5 12 15 35:50 27
Promotion - Ligue 2 (Main)
Promotion - Ligue 2 2025/2026 (Relegation)