Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Caen vs Villefranche

France France

National 2025/2026 Stade Michel d'Ornano, Caen
Our Tip

Match Events

7' Event
Duville-Parsemain A.
Assist: M'Vila Y.
19' Event
Rajot L.
34'
Sub
Assef M. In: Mroivili R.
Out: Assef M.

AI Match Summary

Caen in this National 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 3-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Caen.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Caen
6%
Draws
4%
Villefranche
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Caen

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Villefranche lately — more wins on the board than Caen.
  • Win probability leans Caen's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular National 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Caen Clean Sheet 20%
Villefranche Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Caen Villefranche
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 8 9
Draws 13 6
Losses 8 14
Goals Scored 1.63 1.13
Goals Conceded 0.75 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 24, 2026 Ligue 3
Caen vs Villefranche
3:0
Dec 5, 2025 Ligue 3
Villefranche vs Caen
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Caen Compare

Top Goalscorer Duville-Parsemain A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Rajot L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Villefranche Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Caen 85 / 100
Villefranche 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Caen Villefranche

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CAE Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Caen found the back of the net in 86% of recent matches (29 games).

Villefranche's defensive record shows goals conceded in 79% of 29 matches.

H2H data points to 2.50 goals as a typical output.

Caen has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Caen VS Villefranche
1.63 Goals Scored 1.13
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.63
88% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Caen

(Home)
31 Jul
Caen
1 : 1
Dieppe
25 Jul
Caen
4 : 1
Al Wakra
18 Jul
Caen
4 : 2
Laval
15 Jul
Caen
3 : 4
Paris 13 Atletico
09 Jul
Rennes
1 : 2
Caen
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Villefranche

(Away)
15 Jul
Grenoble
5 : 2
Villefranche
15 May
Concarneau
2 : 2
Villefranche
02 May
Bourg Peronnas
1 : 0
Villefranche
24 Apr
Caen
3 : 0
Villefranche
17 Apr
Villefranche
3 : 1
Paris 13 Atletico
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Dijon 32 18 11 3 52:25 65
2 Sochaux 32 16 10 6 51:26 58
3 Rouen 32 14 13 5 43:29 55
4 Fleury-Merogis 32 15 9 8 47:30 54
5 Versailles 32 15 8 9 46:34 53
6 Orleans 32 14 9 9 42:42 51
7 Le Puy-en-Velay 32 12 11 9 45:38 47
8 Caen 32 8 16 8 39:34 40
9 Concarneau 32 8 14 10 32:37 38
10 Valenciennes 32 10 8 14 35:44 37
11 Aubagne FC 32 9 10 13 38:46 37
12 Villefranche 32 10 7 15 34:45 37
13 Quevilly 32 8 9 15 34:45 33
14 Paris 13 Atletico 32 7 11 14 26:41 32
15 Bourg Peronnas 32 8 7 17 25:44 31
16 Chateauroux 32 6 13 13 35:49 30
17 Stade Briochin 32 5 12 15 35:50 27
Promotion - Ligue 2 (Main)
Promotion - Ligue 2 2025/2026 (Relegation)