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Caerphilly vs Caerau Ely

World World

Club Friendly 2025
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Caerau Ely in this Club Friendly 2025 matchup, with the score ending 0-4 — backing the pre-match view that favored Caerau Ely.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Caerphilly
30%
Draws
39%
Caerau Ely
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Caerau Ely

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Caerau Ely have won more games recently than Caerphilly.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Caerphilly Clean Sheet 20%
Caerau Ely Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Caerphilly Caerau Ely
Matches Played 9 26
Wins 2 12
Draws 1 6
Losses 6 8
Goals Scored 1.11 2.35
Goals Conceded 2.33 1.46
Expected Goals (xG) 0.52 1.20
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 20, 2025 Club Friendly
Caerphilly vs Caerau Ely
0:4

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Caerphilly 32 / 100
Caerau Ely 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Caerphilly Caerau Ely

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Caerau Ely Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 4.00 goals per match.

Caerau Ely has conceded goals in 65% of their last 26 outings.

Caerphilly scored in 56% of their last 9 games.

Caerphilly has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Caerphilly VS Caerau Ely
0.4 Goals Scored 1
1.4 Goals Conceded 0.63
60% Over 1.5 50%
60% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Caerphilly

(Home)
22 Aug
Caerphilly
2 : 1
Ynyshir Albions
15 Aug
Treowen
3 : 0
Caerphilly
07 Aug
Caerphilly
0 : 0
Cardiff Draconians
01 Aug
Pontardawe
3 : 0
Caerphilly
20 Sept
Caerphilly
1 : 3
Caldicot
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Caerau Ely

(Away)
21 Aug
Caerau Ely
1 : 5
Pure Swansea
14 Aug
Trethomas Bluebirds
2 : 4
Caerau Ely
07 Aug
Caerau Ely
1 : 1
Ynyshir Albions
01 Aug
Carmarthen Town
4 : 3
Caerau Ely
25 Jul
Caerau Ely
4 : 4
Barnstaple Town
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