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Caersws FC vs Penrhyncoch

Wales Wales

Cymru North 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Owen D.
45' Event
Phillips S.
60' Event
Owen D.

AI Match Summary

Caersws FC host Penrhyncoch in the Cymru North 2025/2026. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Caersws FC have averaged 1.25 scored and 1.5 conceded recently, against Penrhyncoch's 1.5 scored and 1.38 conceded. Head-to-head, Caersws FC have won 2 to Penrhyncoch's 3, with 0 draws. They last met on Apr 6, 2026, ending 1:2. Model xG sits at 1.31 vs 1.50, favoring Penrhyncoch. Penrhyncoch in a double chance market carries the safer edge.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Caersws FC
40%
Draws
29%
Penrhyncoch
Draw rate projection: 40% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Penrhyncoch has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to Caersws FC.
  • Model projects a tightly contested fixture with a 40% draw probability.
  • League standings and seasonal metrics in Cymru North 2025/2026 provide steady trend data.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78%
Caersws FC Clean Sheet 16%
Penrhyncoch Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Caersws FC Penrhyncoch
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 11 12
Draws 4 4
Losses 15 14
Goals Scored 1.25 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 6, 2026 Cymru North
Caersws FC vs Penrhyncoch
1:2
Feb 4, 2026 Cymru North
Penrhyncoch vs Caersws FC
1:3
Mar 1, 2025 Cymru North
Caersws FC vs Penrhyncoch
1:2
Feb 18, 2025 Cymru North
Penrhyncoch vs Caersws FC
4:1
Sep 17, 2022 FA Cup
Penrhyncoch vs Caersws FC
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Caersws FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Phillips S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Penrhyncoch Compare

Top Goalscorer Owen D.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Caersws FC 31 / 100
Penrhyncoch 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Caersws FC Penrhyncoch

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Caersws FC scored in 73% of their last 30 games.

Penrhyncoch let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.60 goals.

Caersws FC went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Penrhyncoch lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Caersws FC VS Penrhyncoch
1.25 Goals Scored 1.5
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 50%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Llandudno FC30262277:2280
2Airbus UK Broughton FC30243393:2275
3Holywell Town FC30186678:4060
4Newtown301531251:4948
5Rhyl301441246:5546
6Guilsfield301341350:4843
7Mold Alexandra301251338:4541
8Denbigh301241452:5940
9Caersws FC301141546:5137
10Brickfield Rangers301141539:4937
11Holyhead301061444:4936
12Penrhyncoch301051545:5335
13Buckley30931850:7730
14Flint Mountain30921939:6129
15Gresford30841847:8728
16Ruthin Town30651936:6423