Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Cagliari vs Atalanta

Italy Italy

Serie A 2025/2026 Unipol Domus, Cagliari
Our Tip

Match Events

1' Event
Mendy P.
Assist: Adopo M.
8' Event
Mendy P.
40' Event
Scamacca G.

AI Match Summary

Cagliari in this Serie A 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 3-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Cagliari.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Cagliari
39%
Draws
31%
Atalanta
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Atalanta have won more games recently than Cagliari.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Regular Serie A 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Cagliari Clean Sheet 68%
Atalanta Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Cagliari Atalanta
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 9 12
Draws 7 8
Losses 13 10
Goals Scored 1.13 1.38
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 27, 2026 Serie A
Cagliari vs Atalanta
3:2
Dec 13, 2025 Serie A
Atalanta vs Cagliari
2:1
Feb 15, 2025 Serie A
Atalanta vs Cagliari
0:0
Dec 14, 2024 Serie A
Cagliari vs Atalanta
0:1
Apr 7, 2024 Serie A
Cagliari vs Atalanta
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Cagliari Compare

Top Goalscorer Mendy P.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Borrelli G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Atalanta Compare

Top Goalscorer Scamacca G.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cagliari 41 / 100
Atalanta 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Cagliari Atalanta

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CAG Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Cagliari scored in 66% of their last 29 games.

Atalanta let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.

Cagliari went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Cagliari VS Atalanta
1.13 Goals Scored 1.38
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Cagliari

(Home)
23 Jul
Sampdoria
0 : 0
Cagliari
24 May
AC Milan
1 : 2
Cagliari
17 May
Cagliari
2 : 1
Torino
09 May
Cagliari
0 : 2
Udinese
03 May
Bologna
0 : 0
Cagliari
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Atalanta

(Away)
22 May
Fiorentina
1 : 1
Atalanta
17 May
Atalanta
0 : 1
Bologna
10 May
AC Milan
2 : 3
Atalanta
02 May
Atalanta
0 : 0
Genoa
27 Apr
Cagliari
3 : 2
Atalanta
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Inter38276589:3587
2Napoli38237858:3676
3AS Roma382341159:3173
4Como382011765:2971
5AC Milan382010853:3570
6Juventus381912761:3469
7Atalanta381514951:3659
8Bologna381681449:4656
9Lazio3814121241:4054
10Udinese381481645:4850
11Sassuolo381471746:5049
12Torino381291744:6345
13Parma3811121528:4645
14Cagliari3811101740:5343
15Fiorentina389151441:5042
16Genoa3810111741:5141
17Lecce381082028:5038
18Cremonese388102032:5734
19Verona383122325:6121
20Pisa382122426:7118
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Serie B (Main)