Sport Picks

Spain

Tercera Division - Group 13 2009/2010

UCAM Murcia

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Calasparra FC play UCAM Murcia in the Tercera Division - Group 13 2009/2010. UCAM Murcia are favorites here. Recently, Calasparra FC averaged 1.13 goals scored and 1.83 conceded. UCAM Murcia averaged 1.69 goals scored and 1.22 conceded. In past meetings, Calasparra FC won 0, UCAM Murcia won 4, and they drew 0. Their last match on Apr 17, 2011 ended 6:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.35 for Calasparra FC and 1.30 for UCAM Murcia. This points to a UCAM Murcia double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%

Calasparra FC

15%

Draws

58%

UCAM Murcia

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: UCAM Murcia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

84% / High Confidence

Calasparra FC picked up more points recently compared to UCAM Murcia.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.35 vs 1.30 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 56%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 85%

Over 2.5 Goals 56%

Over 3.5 Goals 34%

Over 4.5 Goals 17%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 52%

Calasparra FC Clean Sheet 19%

UCAM Murcia Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 77%

Second Half Goal 81%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Calasparra FC	UCAM Murcia
Matches Played	30	32
Wins	8	17
Draws	5	4
Losses	17	11
Goals Scored	1.13	1.69
Goals Conceded	1.83	1.22

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 17, 2011 Tercera RFEF - Group 13

UCAM Murcia vs Calasparra FC

Possession: 54% - 57% Cards: 1 - 0

6:0

Nov 28, 2010 Tercera RFEF - Group 13

Calasparra FC vs UCAM Murcia

Possession: 42% - 45% Cards: 4 - 4

0:2

May 2, 2010 Tercera RFEF - Group 13

Calasparra FC vs UCAM Murcia

Possession: 51% - 54% Cards: 3 - 3

0:1

Dec 20, 2009 Tercera RFEF - Group 13

UCAM Murcia vs Calasparra FC

Possession: 48% - 54% Cards: 1 - 1

4:3

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Calasparra FC 28 / 100

UCAM Murcia 54 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Calasparra FC UCAM Murcia

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick UCAM Murcia Win (2)

Secondary Pick UCAM Murcia & Over 2.5

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +42%

5.26

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +12%

2.00

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Calasparra FC attacking → ← attacking UCAM Murcia

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Calasparra FC scored in 57% of their last 30 games.

UCAM Murcia let in goals in 75% of their last 32 matches.

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Calasparra FC went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

UCAM Murcia lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

29 Points in last 5 55

0.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.50

0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.50

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Futbol Club Jumilla	38	27	5	6	84:26	86
2	Yeclano	38	26	6	6	93:38	84
3	Lorca Deportiva	38	26	6	6	95:36	84
4	UCAM Murcia	38	26	5	7	82:38	83
5	Cartagena La Union	38	25	6	7	84:40	81
6	Pinatar	38	24	8	6	68:28	80
7	Ciudad Cieza	38	24	8	6	81:33	80
8	CA Pulpileno	38	15	7	16	61:56	52
9	Plus Ultra	38	14	10	14	59:56	52
10	Santomera	38	12	13	13	52:45	49
11	FC Puente Tocinos	38	14	6	18	48:57	48
12	Club Edeco Fortuna	38	13	8	17	50:73	47
13	Cartagena FC UCAM	38	11	10	17	59:55	43
14	Beniel	38	12	6	20	54:71	42
15	Calasparra FC	38	9	9	20	44:70	36
16	Base Abaran	38	8	7	23	26:81	31
17	Bala Azul	38	7	9	22	47:76	30
18	Mazarron CF	38	7	7	24	40:69	28
19	CD Lumbreras	38	5	3	30	28:127	18
20	Jumilla CD	38	3	5	30	31:111	14