Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Caldas SC vs 1º Dezembro Prediction & H2H Stats

Portugal Portugal

Liga 3 2025/2026 Campo da Mata, Caldas da Rainha
Our Tip

Match Events

41' Event
Ferreira D.
45'
Damaso R.
45'
Harramiz S.

AI Match Summary

The Liga 3 2025/2026 game between Caldas SC and 1º Dezembro finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Caldas SC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Caldas SC
30%
Draws
29%
1º Dezembro
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Caldas SC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Caldas SC come out ahead of 1º Dezembro on wins alone.
  • Caldas SC are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Caldas SC Clean Sheet 68%
1º Dezembro Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Caldas SC 1º Dezembro
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 10 6
Draws 4 9
Losses 16 15
Goals Scored 0.93 0.9
Goals Conceded 1.37 1.47
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 2, 2026 Liga 3
1º Dezembro vs Caldas SC
2:1
Feb 15, 2026 Liga 3
Caldas SC vs 1º Dezembro
2:1
Dec 14, 2025 Liga 3
1º Dezembro vs Caldas SC
2:0
Sep 14, 2025 Liga 3
Caldas SC vs 1º Dezembro
2:2
Jan 25, 2025 Liga 3
1º Dezembro vs Caldas SC
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Caldas SC Compare

Top Goalscorer Oliveira F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Farinha L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

1º Dezembro Compare

Top Goalscorer Ferreira D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Caldas SC 50 / 100
1º Dezembro 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Caldas SC 1º Dezembro

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Caldas SC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

1º Dezembro's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 30 matches.

Caldas SC's goal record stands at 63% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Caldas SC stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Caldas SC VS 1º Dezembro
1 Goals Scored 0.75
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Caldas SC

(Home)
13 Sept
Caldas SC
2 : 0
Vitoria Sernache
04 Sept
Santarem
0 : 1
Caldas SC
30 Aug
Caldas SC
1 : 3
Sintrense
23 Aug
Caldas SC
2 : 4
Louletano
16 Aug
Caldas SC
0 : 0
Lusitano GC
Page 1 of 6

1º Dezembro

(Away)
13 Sept
1º Dezembro
1 : 1
Amora
06 Sept
Serpa
1 : 1
1º Dezembro
30 Aug
1º Dezembro
0 : 1
Real SC
16 Aug
Imortal
5 : 0
1º Dezembro
02 May
1º Dezembro
2 : 1
Caldas SC
Page 1 of 6