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Calvary vs Lugazi - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Uganda Uganda

Premier League 2025/2026 Midigo P/S Play Ground, Yumbe
Calvary Logo

Calvary

0 - 0
FT
Lugazi Logo

Lugazi

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Premier League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Calvary
20%
Draws
34%
Lugazi
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Calvary

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Attack-wise there's a gap: Calvary at 0.52 per game, Lugazi at 0.48.
  • Model gives Calvary a 46% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Lugazi have won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 60.2%
Calvary Clean Sheet 20%
Lugazi Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Calvary Lugazi
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 5 5
Draws 8 7
Losses 16 17
Goals Scored 0.52 0.48
Goals Conceded 1.24 1.31
Expected Goals (xG) 0.81 0.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 15, 2026 Premier League
Calvary vs Lugazi
0:0
Sep 26, 2025 Premier League
Lugazi vs Calvary
3:1
Mar 24, 2024 Big League
Lugazi vs Calvary
1:0
Oct 8, 2023 Big League
Calvary vs Lugazi
0:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Calvary 85 / 100
Lugazi 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Calvary Lugazi

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Calvary Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lugazi has conceded goals in 72% of their last 29 outings.

These sides typically produce 1.50 goals when they meet.

Calvary went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Difficult form: Lugazi registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Calvary VS Lugazi
0.88 Goals Scored 0.75
0.63 Goals Conceded 0.75
63% Over 1.5 38%
0% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Calvary

(Home)
08 Oct
Calvary
2 : 0
Kaaro Karungi
04 Oct
Young Elephant Academy
2 : 0
Calvary
23 May
Calvary
2 : 0
NEC FC
19 May
UPDF FC
0 : 0
Calvary
12 May
Uganda Revenue
1 : 1
Calvary
Page 1 of 6

Lugazi

(Away)
07 Oct
Maroons
3 : 0
Lugazi
16 Sept
Lugazi
0 : 2
Police
09 Sept
Entebbe UPPC
0 : 1
Lugazi
01 Sept
NEC FC
3 : 1
Lugazi
29 Aug
Lugazi
2 : 1
Kigezi HomeBoyz
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vipers 30 19 10 1 55:17 67
2 Kampala City 30 19 5 6 46:22 62
3 Villa 30 18 7 5 47:17 61
4 Kitara 30 16 8 6 43:22 56
5 Entebbe UPPC 30 14 9 7 30:20 51
6 NEC FC 30 13 12 5 31:22 51
7 Police 30 13 8 9 42:35 47
8 Maroons 30 9 11 10 26:27 38
9 BUL 30 9 10 11 30:33 37
10 Express FC 30 9 10 11 28:31 37
11 Uganda Revenue 30 5 16 9 27:30 31
12 Mbarara City 30 6 9 15 26:46 27
13 Lugazi 30 5 10 15 19:36 25
14 UPDF FC 30 5 7 18 24:41 22
15 Calvary 30 4 9 17 14:39 21
16 Buhimba 30 4 3 23 16:66 15
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
Relegation - Big League (Main)