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Calvary vs Villa

Uganda Uganda

Premier League Midigo P/S Play Ground, Yumbe
Mon, Mar 2, 2026
0 - 3
01:00 PM
Our Tip

Match Events

34' Event
Ssebuufu F.

AI Match Summary

Calvary host Villa in the Premier League. Villa go into this one as the clear favorite. Calvary have averaged 0.47 scored and 1.3 conceded recently, against Villa's 1.53 scored and 0.47 conceded. Head-to-head, Calvary have won 0 to Villa's 2, with 0 draws. They last met on Mar 2, 2026, ending 0:3. xG projections (0.56 - 0.94) back Villa to edge this. AI prediction: Away (2) Win — correct score tipped at 1-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

32%
Calvary
20%
Draws
48%
Villa
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Villa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

48% / Medium Confidence
  • Villa have won more games recently than Calvary.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 60.2%
Calvary Clean Sheet 20%
Villa Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Calvary Villa
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 4 21
Draws 9 6
Losses 17 5
Goals Scored 0.47 1.53
Goals Conceded 1.3 0.47
Expected Goals (xG) 0.56 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 2, 2026 Premier League
Calvary vs Villa
0:3
Dec 17, 2025 Premier League
Villa vs Calvary
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Calvary Compare

Avg xG / game 0.43
Avg xA / game 0.28

Villa Compare

Top Goalscorer Ssebuufu F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Calvary 32 / 100
Villa 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Calvary Villa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Villa Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Calvary remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Calvary scored in 33% of their last 30 games.

Villa's defensive record shows goals conceded in 38% of 32 matches.

Scoring Trends

Calvary VS Villa
0.63 Goals Scored 1.5
0.38 Goals Conceded 0.5
38% Over 1.5 63%
0% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Calvary

(Home)
23 May
Calvary
2 : 0
NEC FC
19 May
UPDF FC
0 : 0
Calvary
12 May
Uganda Revenue
1 : 1
Calvary
06 May
Calvary
1 : 0
Police
29 Apr
Entebbe UPPC
2 : 0
Calvary
Page 1 of 6

Villa

(Away)
30 May
Kitara
2 : 1
Villa
23 May
Villa
2 : 1
UPDF FC
20 May
NEC FC
1 : 4
Villa
16 May
Villa
1 : 0
Uganda Revenue
13 May
Mbarara City
1 : 3
Villa
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vipers 30 19 10 1 55:17 67
2 Kampala City 30 19 5 6 46:22 62
3 Villa 30 18 7 5 47:17 61
4 Kitara 30 16 8 6 43:22 56
5 Entebbe UPPC 30 14 9 7 30:20 51
6 NEC FC 30 13 12 5 31:22 51
7 Police 30 13 8 9 42:35 47
8 Maroons 30 9 11 10 26:27 38
9 BUL 30 9 10 11 30:33 37
10 Express FC 30 9 10 11 28:31 37
11 Uganda Revenue 30 5 16 9 27:30 31
12 Mbarara City 30 6 9 15 26:46 27
13 Lugazi 30 5 10 15 19:36 25
14 UPDF FC 30 5 7 18 24:41 22
15 Calvary 30 4 9 17 14:39 21
16 Buhimba 30 4 3 23 16:66 15
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
Relegation - Big League 2026/2027 (Main)