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Campinense vs Serra Branca

Brazil Brazil

Paraibano
Our Tip

Match Events

13'
Venicio
34'
Augusto Potiguar
46'
Sub
Miguel Souza In: Gean Junior
Out: Miguel Souza

AI Match Summary

The Paraibano game between Campinense and Serra Branca finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Campinense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Campinense
30%
Draws
37%
Serra Branca
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Serra Branca

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Serra Branca come out ahead of Campinense on wins alone.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Paraibano form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 28%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%
Campinense Clean Sheet 19%
Serra Branca Clean Sheet 19%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Campinense Serra Branca
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 12 13
Draws 8 10
Losses 10 8
Goals Scored 1.1 1.23
Goals Conceded 1 1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.73 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 14, 2026 Paraibano
Campinense vs Serra Branca
1:0
Jan 11, 2025 Paraibano
Serra Branca vs Campinense
1:0
Feb 9, 2024 Paraibano
Serra Branca vs Campinense
1:1
Jan 28, 2023 Paraibano
Campinense vs Serra Branca
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Campinense Compare

Top Goalscorer Augusto Potiguar
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.56
Avg xA / game 0.36

Serra Branca Compare

Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Campinense 32 / 100
Serra Branca 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Campinense Serra Branca

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Campinense found the back of the net in 67% of recent matches (30 games).

Serra Branca let in goals in 65% of their last 31 matches.

Campinense has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Historical meetings average 1.00 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Campinense VS Serra Branca
0.33 Goals Scored 1.5
1 Goals Conceded 1.13
33% Over 1.5 88%
0% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Campinense

(Home)
08 Mar
Campinense
0 : 2
Sousa
28 Feb
Sousa
0 : 1
Campinense
22 Feb
EC de Patos
1 : 0
Campinense
18 Feb
Campinense
1 : 1
Sousa
14 Feb
Campinense
1 : 0
Serra Branca
Page 1 of 6

Serra Branca

(Away)
12 Jul
Uberlandia
2 : 2
Serra Branca
04 Jul
Serra Branca
0 : 1
Uberlandia
28 Jun
Juazeirense
0 : 1
Serra Branca
21 Jun
Serra Branca
2 : 0
Juazeirense
14 Jun
Sergipe
1 : 1
Serra Branca
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Botafogo PB 9 4 4 1 13:7 16
2 Campinense 9 4 3 2 14:9 15
3 Sousa 9 4 3 2 13:8 15
4 Serra Branca 9 4 2 3 11:10 14
5 Nacional PB 9 3 5 1 14:10 14
6 Treze PB 9 4 0 5 11:11 12
7 EC de Patos 9 3 2 4 6:9 11
8 Atletico Cajazeirense 9 3 1 5 6:11 10
9 Confianca PB 9 2 2 5 12:17 8
10 Pombal 9 2 2 5 10:18 8
Promotion - Paraibano (Play Offs)
Relegation - Paraibano 2 2027 (Main)