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Canada vs Chile

South America South America

Copa América Inter&Co Stadium
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Canada play Chile in the Copa América. It looks like a close match. Recently, Canada averaged 1.45 goals scored and 0.79 conceded. Chile averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.33 conceded. In past meetings, Canada won 0, Chile won 0, and they drew 2. Their last match on Jun 30, 2024 ended 0:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.27 for Canada and 1.19 for Chile. This points to a Canada double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Canada
24%
Draws
30%
Chile
Draw rate projection: 24% Favored: Canada

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Canada picked up more points recently compared to Chile.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.27 vs 1.19 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 65%
Over 2.5 Goals 48%
Over 3.5 Goals 29%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35%
Canada Clean Sheet 20%
Chile Clean Sheet 11%
First Half Goal 59%
Second Half Goal 62%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Canada Chile
Matches Played 33 30
Wins 16 10
Draws 9 6
Losses 8 14
Goals Scored 1.45 1.2
Goals Conceded 0.79 1.33
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.38 1.67

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 30, 2024 Copa América
Canada vs Chile
0:0
Aug 13, 1987 Pan American Games
Canada vs Chile
2:2

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Canada 45 / 100
Chile 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Canada Chile

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Canada or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +21%
2.63
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +14.2%
2.38
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Canada attacking → ← attacking Chile

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Canada scored in 70% of their last 33 games.

Chile let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Canada went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Chile lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Cup knockout game. Winning is all that matters, which can lead to wild tactics or extra time.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

57 Points in last 5 36
0.88 Goals expected (xG) 2.00
0.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.67

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Argentina33005:09
2Canada31111:24
3Chile30210:12
4Peru30120:31
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Venezuela33006:19
2Ecuador31114:34
3Mexico31111:14
4Jamaica30031:70
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Uruguay33009:19
2Panama32016:56
3USA31023:33
4Bolivia30031:100
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Colombia32106:27
2Brazil31205:25
3Costa Rica31112:44
4Paraguay30033:80