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Canberra Croatia vs NWS Spirit

Australia Australia

Australian Championship Deakin Stadium
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Canberra Croatia play NWS Spirit in the Australian Championship. It looks like a close match. Recently, Canberra Croatia averaged 2.5 goals scored and 1.47 conceded. NWS Spirit averaged 1.17 goals scored and 1.27 conceded. In past meetings, Canberra Croatia won 0, NWS Spirit won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Nov 16, 2025 ended 0:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.06 for Canberra Croatia and 1.13 for NWS Spirit. This points to a Canberra Croatia double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

48%
Canberra Croatia
15%
Draws
37%
NWS Spirit
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Canberra Croatia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

74% / Medium Confidence
  • Canberra Croatia picked up more points recently compared to NWS Spirit.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.06 vs 1.13 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 64%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 81%
Over 2.5 Goals 64%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 19%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 56%
Canberra Croatia Clean Sheet 21%
NWS Spirit Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 73%
Second Half Goal 77%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Canberra Croatia NWS Spirit
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 20 11
Draws 2 6
Losses 10 13
Goals Scored 2.5 1.17
Goals Conceded 1.47 1.27
Expected Goals (xG) 3.00 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 16, 2025 Australian Championship
Canberra Croatia vs NWS Spirit
0:1
Oct 26, 2025 Australian Championship
NWS Spirit vs Canberra Croatia
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Canberra Croatia Compare

Avg xG / game 2.31
Avg xA / game 1.5

NWS Spirit Compare

Top Goalscorer Jackson-Brown C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Canberra Croatia 47 / 100
NWS Spirit 35 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Canberra Croatia NWS Spirit

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Canberra Croatia or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +20%
2.50
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +10.1%
1.72
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Canberra Croatia attacking → ← attacking NWS Spirit

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Canberra Croatia scored in 88% of their last 32 games.

NWS Spirit let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Canberra Croatia went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

NWS Spirit lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

62 Points in last 5 39
3.00 Goals expected (xG) 0.88
1.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.13

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1South Melbourne651013:616
2Moreton City Excelsior622215:138
3Sydney Olympic621314:147
4Broadmeadow Magic FC61058:173
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Heidelberg Utd633015:612
2Marconi Stallions631210:710
3Wollongong631213:1110
4South Hobart60156:201
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Avondale FC633012:612
2NWS Spirit62228:98
3Preston Lions61417:67
4Canberra Croatia61146:124
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Wests APIA641112:413
2MetroStars63127:410
3Bayswater63127:910
4Sydney Utd60155:141